Derby News Network Power Rankings - July 2012
| DNN | WFTDA | W/L | Next | Notes | ||||
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1 E | 2012 5-0 2011 14-0 |
7/14 vs Steel City | The NYC team is looking just as dominant as they did in 2011 after knocking off both #2 Rose City (69 points) and #3 Denver (125 points). They keep the challenge level high in July, heading down to Austin to play Texas, Bay Area and Windy City on July 21 and 22. Gotham's currently on a 19-0 flat-track win streak and will tie Oly's record of 22 straight wins if they sweep the competition in Austin. | ||||
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3 W | 2012 6-1 2011 9-6 |
7/14 @ Rat City | Though they couldn't dethrone Gotham at ECDX, Rose City looks like a fairly solid #2 after giving the champs a considerably harder time than they're used to. This month Rose City takes on Rat City (July 14 in Seattle) and Philly (July 28 at Rollercon); they may still be missing key jammer Scald Eagle, who left the Gotham game early on injury and did not play the following week against Sacred. | ||||
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4 W | 2012 5-2 2011 13-3 |
7/28 @ Rose City | Like Rose City, Denver ran aground against Gotham at ECDX, but a convincing defeat of Philly demonstrated that Denver still sports one of the the toughest defenses in the sport; Denver meets Minnesota on neutral ground at Rollercon on July 29. | ||||
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1 SC | 2012 7-1 2011 14-9 |
7/21 @ Windy City | Texas' June was highlighted by a corker of a 187-154 win over Philly at ECDX; they also benefit from Windy City's rough June, moving up into the 4 slot. They'll get a shot at #1 Gotham on Texas home turf in a couple of weeks at the Star of Texas Bowl, as well as Windy City and Bay Area. | ||||
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1 W | 2012 5-0 2011 14-1 |
8/25 vs Minnesota | Over half a year into the 2012 season, Oly is still the one of the biggest question marks in roller derby. Although Oly's level of competition has been far less challenging than that of their peers this year, they finally put up some triangulation-ready results when they shared opponents Naptown and Tampa Bay with nearby Rat City. Oly claimed considerably better victory margins than Rat City (+102 against Naptown, +52 against Tampa); while that's not exactly a ironclad case for Oly > Rat City, it's slightly better than tea leaves. Oly's quiet in July but finally takes on the heavy hitters when they play Minnesota and Texas in late August. | ||||
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6 W | 2012 2-1 2011 14-5 |
7/7 vs Kansas City | Bay Area stands pat at #6 after barely edging last month's #10 Rat City, 152-147, with more than a little last-jam help from Rat City. BAD's got a very busy July lined up, taking on Kansas City (July 7), Texas (July 21), and Windy City and Gotham (July 22). |
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5 W | 2012 4-1 2011 11-9 |
7/14 vs Rose City | The Seattle crew got a late start to their season but they got back up to speed very quickly -- after zero games over the first five months of 2012, they squashed 5 games into June and went 4-1 (including the snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory loss to Bay Area). This month is less busy but no less challenging as they play regional rivals Rose City on July 14. | ||||
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2 W | 2012 6-2 2011 9-3 |
7/27 @ Minnesota | A big 102-point knockout of perennial Championships contenders Kansas City demonstrated that a slightly weakened RMRG is still one of the major forces in roller derby. They'll battle both Minnesota and Philly at the end of the month in Las Vegas. | ||||
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2 E | 2012 2-3 2011 12-9 |
7/7 @ Charm City | This year's addition of V-Diva has given Philly a powerful new weapon in the jamming arsenal, but thus far in 2012 Philly has once again been looking like they're just a half-step behind the elites. They suffered losses to Gotham, Texas and Denver in June, but rise from last month's #11 slot due to drops from Windy City, Kansas City and Arizona. This weekend they go up against longtime region rivals Charm City; Charm came within 26 and 8 points of upsets in 2011, suggesting that this 2012 meeting is one to keep an eye on. | ||||
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2 SC | 2012 4-2 2011 12-4 |
7/7 @ Bay Area | KCRW had a bit of an exodus after their strong end to the 2011 season, losing WFTDA Championships MVP Kelley Young, Hall Balls and Eclipse, and their results this year suggest that they're not quite the team that finished 4th at the last Championships tournament; in June, they lost by just over 100 points to both Rocky Mountain and Denver. Those results drop them a slot below Philly, who did slightly better against Denver at ECDX. They have a golden opportunity to go back up again when they take on Bay Area this weekend, though. | ||||
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6 E | 2012 8-5 2011 17-7 |
7/14 @ Boston | Montreal had a huge June, scoring arguably the most important wins of their existence by taking out Charm City and Steel City, against whom they had a combined 0-4 record before last month. What's more, they managed to pull it off without the services of last year's ace jammer, Iron Wench, who returns to the fold this month. A July 14 matchup with Boston, who lost to Charm City by 98 points the day after Montreal stunned Charm City, will go a long way towards demonstrating whether Montreal's June was the high point of their year or the first step on the way to a top-three finish at Easterns. | ||||
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3 E | 2012 6-1 2011 9-8 |
7/7 vs Philly | Charm City started June off with a couple of highly unexpected wins -- narrowly taking out Minnesota and Windy City on consecutive evenings -- and then ended it with a very surprising loss to Montreal, a team they'd whipped 207-85 in 2011. For about a half, it looked like Boston might stun them as well, but Charm rallied after a cold start to solidly defeat Boston 229-131. Given Charm's wide variety of June outcomes, it's quite hard to say what'll happen when they get yet another shot at longtime East tormentors Philly on July 7. Philly enjoys a 4-1 lead in their all-time series. | ||||
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2 NC | 2012 6-2 2011 11-4 |
7/27 @ Rocky Mountain | There's still no public word from the WFTDA on the official outcome of Minnesota's hugely controversial June 16 game with Windy City, which ended with Minnesota up 160-155 on the visible scoreboard but the teams tied at 155 on the scoresheet. If nothing else, though, it proved that the two teams are essentially impossible to separate. This month we're giving the nod to Minnesota based on their better performance against shared opponent Charm City at early June's Brewhaha; Minnesota has three big opportunities in Las Vegas at the end of this month against #8 Rocky Mountain, #9 Philly and #3 Denver to break the rankings stalemate with Windy -- and potentially crack the top 10 for the first time. | ||||
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1 NC | 2012 3-3 2011 16-3 |
7/14 vs Pickup Teams | Chicago's crew peaked at #4 last month on the strength of an early-season 3 point loss to current #2 Rose City, but a tough June that saw a penalty-strewn upset at the hands of Charm City, plus their instantly-infamous deadlock with Minnesota, drops Windy City back into the fray of the high teens. Like Minnesota, though, Windy City has plenty of good chances to build a case for rising when they face three higher-ranked teams at the Star of Texas Bowl on July 21 and 22 -- #1 Gotham, #4 Texas and #6 Bay Area. | ||||
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3 NC | 2012 8-4 2011 14-4 |
8/18 @ Kansas City | Naptown is a little tough to figure right now, having put up a handful of results that don't seem to jibe with each other very well. They went down by 118 points early in the season against Windy City, but very nearly took out Minnesota in May. More recently, in June, they had a much closer win than expected over unranked Atlanta (109-98) but then also acquitted themselves decently against current #7 Rat City, losing 210-152. With no July action on the docket for the Indianapolis team, we'll have to wait till August against Arch Rival and Kansas City for more data. | ||||
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5 E | 2012 3-0 2011 4-6 |
TBD | The only top-25 team with less helpful data than Oly, London has played just two sanctioned games this year and won them by a total of 897 points; the massive skill and experience disparity on their side of the Atlantic makes it pretty much impossible to determine what that means for their shots against stateside teams. London essentially holds steady at 16 as the rest of the field moderately shifts around them (Montreal goes up, Arizona comes down); we probably won't have any real idea about London's relative strength until Easterns. | ||||
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7 E | 2012 5-2 2011 7-10 |
7/14 vs Montreal | Just a couple of months ago, Boston looked like a team in danger of dropping in their region as they barely held off challenges from Carolina (9 points) and Dutchland (19 points), but they had a bright weekend at ECDX when they managed to defeat last month's DNN #8 Arizona and give Charm City a serious first-half scare before succumbing in the second. Boston faces Montreal in what might be a East playoffs preview on July 14; though Montreal solidly beat a Boston crew in an unsanctioned game early this year, Boston's roster for that one did not include the majority of their all-stars. | ||||
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10 W | 2012 5-2 2011 4-7 |
8/11 @ So Cal | Arizona played two of the closest games at ECDX, barely losing to Boston by 16 points and barely beating Steel City by the exact same margin. Both games could have easily gone either way, suggesting that Arizona's surprising 11 point loss to Rocky Mountain in April is the outlier for now. Penalties and jammer depth appeared to be major problems for AZ at ECDX (key blocker Joy Collision had 6 box trips by the half against Boston, and Atomatrix scored 136 of AZ's 209 points against Steel City); their match this month against regional rival Angel City will help determine how Arizona might stack up against the level of competition they'll face at the West playoffs. | ||||
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4 E | 2012 7-4 2011 11-7 |
7/14 @ Gotham | Although they drop one slot to #19 after three losses to top-25 teams in June, Steel City seems like they could easily be considerably higher with a few breaks -- they lost to current #11 Montreal by just 27 and previous #8 Arizona by just 16. This month they get a matchup against a Detroit team that will certainly be eager to prove itself after significantly underperforming at Midwest Brewhaha; that game is on July 14 in Pittsburgh. | ||||
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8 E | 2012 7-2 2011 17-3 |
8/5 vs Atlanta | Carolina scored a 40 point win over a wavering Chicago Outfit in June, but Boston's strong ECDX performances against Charm City and Arizona make Carolina look a little better by comparison, as Carolina very nearly knocked off Boston in May. Carolina rises one spot to 20 and takes July off before facing Atlanta in August. | ||||
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9 E | 2012 3-3 2011 9-4 |
7/22 @ Detroit | No action for Dutchland last month, but they pick up one slot as Detroit drops off from their previous perch of #17. Quite conveniently, Dutchland goes up against that very same Detroit team on July 22. | ||||
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9W | 2012 5-3 2011 8-11 |
TBD | A confluence of factors leads to a unexpected return to the Power Rankings for Jet City -- most directly, they had a surprise win over last month's #23 Tampa, 92-57, and they also had a surprisingly close game against current #15 Naptown, losing by 40 at 153-113. Finally, while it's been three months since their 103 point loss to Oly, that result looks a bit better after June, considering that Oly defeated Naptown by 160 and Tampa by 194. | ||||
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6 SC | 2012 5-6 2011 6-9 |
TBD | A rough trip to the Pacific Northwest saw Tampa lose all three of their June games (against Jet City, Rat City and Oly) but Tampa stays a half-step ahead of Ohio on comparison of their recent games against Madison (Ohio bested Madison by 26 on June 1, while Tampa beat out Madison by 55 on May 11). Tampa doesn't appear to have any more games scheduled between now and playoff season, so they may be a bit of an unknown quantity before the South Central meets in Lincoln. | ||||
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7 NC | 2012 17-1 2011 13-8 |
7/15 @ NEO | Although Ohio has put up more 2012 wins than anybody else on this list, building a 17-1 record over the last six months, only 4 of those wins have come against teams that qualified for the Big 5 last year. In some ways they're reminiscent of Carolina in 2011, who put up a 14-1 regular season record against sub-playoff competition before finishing 9th in their own playoffs. Oddly, Ohio's only loss so far this year is to … Carolina. This month they take on NEO, but it's likely not till their August 18 game against Chicago Outfit that they'll be seriously tested again. | ||||
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8 NC | 2012 7-2 2011 10-6 |
7/7 @ Nashville | The St. Louis crew had a very good Brewhaha weekend when they upset Detroit by 56 and then hammered Cincinnati by 127; that puts them in pretty good shape for the NC playoff rankings. The end of the month wasn't quite as impressive, with a decent showing against top-level powerhouse Texas (210-106) and a narrow win over last month's #25 Houston (159-138), but it's enough to bring them on the bottom rung of this month's list. They'll get Nashville (July 7) and Chicago Outfit (July 14) in the next couple of weeks. | ||||
| Key: | |
| E | WFTDA East region |
| W | WFTDA West region |
| NC | WFTDA North Central region |
| SC | WFTDA South Central region |
Comments
Small schedule note
The 7/21 Derby City Ohio game has been changed to feature Ohio's B Team Gang Green. Ohio All Stars will next be in action v. NEO on 7/15 in a closed door bout, then the aforementioned Outfit game.
WHAT??? IT'S AN OUTRAGE I
WHAT??? IT'S AN OUTRAGE I TELL YOU!!!
Teams to watch/on the bubble
If all the chips fall for Cincinnati as they hope they do, then in my opinion, DC should be in the mix for being power ranked as well (30-point direct win over Cincinnati on 5/19).
Arch Rival
Arch Rival in the last two months...
(159)@ Houston (138) - Houston Beats Tampa(23) by 119 points, and gets within 53 points of texas.
(106)@Texas (210) - Texas(4) beats Montreal(11) by 142 points two weeks later
(229)@Cinci (102) - Cinci beats Tampa(23), Cinci has similar point spread to Minnesota earlier in season
(186)@Detroit (130)
(173)@Bleeding Heartland (58) - BH loses to Brew City the week before by 2 points.
I think Arch is getting a bad rap, unable to shake off the loss to Ohio. I think that's the outlier, and I definitely would not underestimate that team.
(That being said, you couldn't pay me enough to try to put these teams in order this season. What a CLUSTERF***! Thanks for doing it for free!)
Steel City v Detroit?
When is Steel City playing Detroit? The notes sez 7/14, but their next sez Gotham on 7/14.
thanks loves!
Steel wheels
According to http://www.gothamgirlsrollerderby.com Gotham will host Steel on 7/14.
According to http://www.steelcityderbydemons.com Steel will host Detroit on 7/21.
It seems that the notes field is the one in error then.
Arizona
Slight correction: Angel City isn't scheduled to play Arizona until October 27, unfortunately.
Scald Eagle
According to Rose City's Twitter feed, her injury was a broken fib and regionals are a possibility -- can't imagine she'll be playing next week against Rat.
https://twitter.com/RoseCityRollers/status/218186885330239490
Youch
Thanks for that info -- didn't realize it was that serious. That's really unfortunate for Rose City in general and Scald specifically. I had a broken fib last year. It's kind of the opposite of fun.
Rose City?
In light of this new information, would you rank Rose City differently?
Nope, this one's pretty straightforward
Rose City did pretty much as well against Gotham as we expected them to do last month even without Scald (she went out very very early in that game), and whipped Sacred by about as much as expected. Scald is obviously a great player but we haven't seen any evidence that her presence or absence would be a outcome-changer against Gotham or Denver.
I agree with the rankings
That said I believe that Scald could be a game changer against both Gotham and Denver. With Scald I believe Rose could have taken Gotham. Moving from a 3 jammer rotation to 2 is not just about losing the points that could have been racked up by the lost jammer but also the stress it puts on the remaining jammers. While White Flight and Soulfearic Acid played extremely well against Gotham I doubt anyone can deny they appeared to be struggling by then end of the bout. If they had an extra jam's worth of rest between each jam they played it would have made a big difference. Whether that difference would have meant a Rose win is certainly debatable but I believe it would have been possible.
Likewise, despite the Gotham triangulation of how strong Rose can play without Scald, Rose and Denver are very closely matched such that the loss of Scald, say for regionals, could mean a loss to Denver. Again, it's not that Scald is just that awesome (though she is pretty awesome) but it's the degree to which the bar is raised for the other skaters when a key member is missing. But I think the top 3 are correct, and interestingly they're in agreement with FTS.
ARRG #25
Does the defeat of Nashville and the Chicago Outfit change the Arch Rival Girl's ranking? What would it take for them to be placed higher?
Easy
What would it take for them to be placed higher?
Easy. Beating someone ranked higher. Beating someone below you, is simply defending your current rank.
Why would it?
How would beating two teams who are not even in the top 25 help the team that is?
Editor
I would appreciate a link to the intro article of this ranking.
http://www.derbynewsnetwork.c
http://www.derbynewsnetwork.com/2012/07/dnn_releases_july_2012_power_ran...
Who is Favorite to win the hydra in 2012
I just want to know who does the Derby world feel will win the Hydra in Atl?
Top 3
Gotham, Rose, or Denver. It's a little early to call though.
ECDX
After seeing all three at ECDX I'm still favoring Gotham.
Too early to say
Post regionals, I suspect more of us will have an idea. We also have to see how Oly's new player dynamics play out with all the ex-Rockys bouting at the same time against the better western competition.
I believe the more interesting question may be who will be the top 3 seeds from each region. I'm sure there's going to be few surprises insofar as who gets to the championship round.
I'll also be interesting if some lower seeds upset some higher ranking seeds.
Agreed, too early
Potential transfers, the dreaded (knock on wood) injuries and team dynamics/strategy improvements can happen leading to Regionals.
One thing for sure, the battle for 2 & 3 (and 1 in the West & North Central) will be very hard fought. Looking forward to it.
Well Gotham, of course.
Clearly Gotham is the current favorite, but as everyone else has mentioned there could be a few surprises in store.
I agree that the more interesting question is who's going to championships. In the western region it's particularly difficult, because there are 6 teams that have a very good chance of going to champs.
Really looking forward to the Denver / Rose rematch at Rollercon.
Maybe 7?
I know they've been inconsistent, but with a few months to gel, I'm not sure AZRD can be ruled out as a possible spoiler in the west either.
But yeah, I feel like the top 6 for sure are really really close. Can't wait for Oakland!
H'mm AZRD
I could possibly see a game where AZRD beats a western 5 or 6 seed in a high scoring shootout. What concerns me about AZRD is a lack of defense: They gave up a lot of points recently to some quality opponents--Rocky, Boston, and Steel. I'm sure they'll score quite a few points, but they've got to really tighten things up considerably on the defensive blocking side before the regionals before I could see them as a spoiler for one of the top 3 spots coming out of the west.
AZRD: we're on it.
I could possibly see a game where AZRD beats a western 5 or 6 seed in a high scoring shootout. What concerns me about AZRD is a lack of defense: They gave up a lot of points recently to some quality opponents--Rocky, Boston, and Steel. I'm sure they'll score quite a few points, but they've got to really tighten things up considerably on the defensive blocking side before the regionals before I could see them as a spoiler for one of the top 3 spots coming out of the west.
Playing opponents like Rocky, Boston, and Steel has been an incredible experience for us. We have learned a lot about our defensive (and offensive) failures, and see each game as having been great learning opportunities. Consequently, our practices have been addressing our areas of weakness, and we have been getting closer to that "hive" mentality mention earlier.
I am excited to see my team develop, and push ourselves to consistently demonstrate our potential in national play. Do we have more to learn? Most definitely. Do we have the desire to learn it? You betcha. Can we play to upset? Absolutely, so long as we remain focused and keep our collective eyes on the same prize. Regionals will be an exciting test of our growth & development - one that we wholeheartedly embrace. Bring it!
7th
I'm willing to rule them out for this year. I think there's a lot more than just gel that needs to happen in such a short time to put them into the top 3; they would need to turn into a hive-mind/machine. If we're going to pick 7, I say Victorian has to be the 7th because they're just a big fat question mark.
7/11
Of course, they can't be 7 if they end up being 11. For Q2 rankings, that is. We should be like a week away from those announcements, yeah? Hope they come soon!
Don't get me wrong -- it'd be cool to see Victorian in Oakland. I'm just not sure they'll squeak in for 2012.
I still see AZRD winning a first round game and then putting up a serious fight against the #2 seed (DRD??). Should be fun!
Not Oakland
Westerns is being held in Richmond, CA not Oakland. Richmond is 13 miles north of Oakland, 10 miles north of hotels. The Craneway Pavilion is beautiful though.
Corrected
Yeah, I know. Just being lazy. :)
Champs wasn't in Denver last year either, but that didn't stop most people from calling it Denver.
I've seen pictures of the venue. CAN. NOT. WAIT.
He has previously started
He has previously started interact with players future them for recommendation before the pastime at the Aloha Stadium. While Peyton man, the Colts' quarterback, spoke to him about pliability, AFC's Bill Belichick gave him a number of education advices.
http://www.champful.com/Pro-Bowl.php