Derby News Network Power Rankings - September 2011
For more background on the methodology and reasoning behind our Power Rankings, please see this month's intro article and the original DNN Power Rankings FAQ.
| DNN | WFTDA | W/L | Next | Notes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 W | 2011 8-0 2010 15-2 |
9/11 vs Cincinnati | No movement for Oly, who steamrolled over Emerald City in a unsanctioned 268-30 match in late August. They're in action this month as they host #18 Cincinnati; it's the first time the two teams have met on the track. Oly begins their quest to be the first two-time WFTDA champions on September 23 at Western Regionals, up against either Jet City or Tucson in their first match. | ||||
|
1 E | 2011 8-0 2010 12-1 |
9/16 @ [TBA] | Turned back a stiff challenge from #4 Denver in August, winning 187-116 after a fairly closely matched first half; Denver and #5 Rose City are the only teams to manage to stay within 100 points of Gotham this year. Gotham heads into the 2011 East Region tournament having won their games this year by an average of 173 points each; their next game will be against either Maine or Dutchland. | ||||
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|
2 W | 2011 5-1 2010 15-1 |
9/23 @ [TBA] | Put up big wins over Detroit (212-41) and London (228-49) in August and stand pat at #3. Like Oly and Gotham, they'll have to wait until the first day of their Regionals to know who their first-round opponent will be -- either Angel City or Sacred City. | ||||
|
3 W | 2011 10-2 2010 9-3 |
9/23 @ Rat City | Denver's only two losses this year have been to DNN's top two in the nation -- a 90 point loss to Oly in June and a 71 point loss to Gotham last month. They're next in action at West Regionals against Rat City, who stunned Denver in a last-jam nailbiter during last year's regional consolation rounds. | ||||
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|
4 W | 2011 7-4 2010 9-6 |
9/23 @ Bay Area | Put up the second-biggest win of their history when they dismissed Boston 239-61 in August (their only larger victory came in a consolation round game against Angel City at the 2009 West Regionals.) Their only losses this year have been against some of the toughest teams around (#4 Denver twice, #3 Rocky and #2 Gotham); they hope to ride a solid regular season into their first advancement from West Regionals, but Bay Area has the opportunity to end that drive on day 1 of the tournament. | ||||
|
5 W | 2011 12-3 2010 12-7 |
9/23 @ Rose City | After an up-and-down 3-3 early season, Bay Area finished the regular season strong with a sweep of their Golden Bowl weekend, taking down current #9 Windy City, #10 Texas and #13 Detroit (with the Texas game a particularly impressive 126-point rout), so they'll also have momentum going into their showdown with Rose City at Westerns. | ||||
|
1 SC | 2011 7-1 2010 8-5 |
9/10 @ Windy City | Solidly defeated new #21 Arch Rival in August, 146-80, and go up one spot as Philly drops out of the top 10. They take on #9 Windy City in a battle between the queens of the North and South Central regions this weekend on September 10. | ||||
|
6 W | 2011 6-6 2010 9-6 |
9/9 vs Cincinnati | Thumped #25 Boston by triple digits in August with a 192-89 victory, ending their regular season with a losing 5-6 sanctioned record (6-6 overall) on a very tough schedule. It doesn't get much easier for them as they go into the West Regional - Denver's their first-round opponent, but Rat City did acquit themselves well in March against them in a 140-118 loss. | ||||
|
1 NC | 2011 12-1 2010 7-6 |
9/10 vs Kansas City | It's been a strong season thus far for Windy City, 10-1 in sanctioned action (12-1 overall) with their only loss coming to #6 Bay Area in a 116-49 game in August. They get a serious test against #7 Kansas City on Saturday. | ||||
|
2 SC | 2011 9-8 2010 7-8 |
TBD | Texas had a tough time at the Golden Bowl, getting pummeled by Bay Area in their largest loss ever (185-59), barely fighting off Detroit by 8 points and falling into a huge halftime hole against Windy City before charging back to make it a close final at 132-121. They'll have to wait until South Centrals begin to find out whether their first-round opponent is No Coast or Omaha. | ||||
|
2 E | 2011 9-7 2010 15-6 |
9/16 @ [TBA] | Philly continues to have a bit of a confounding year - in June they came within just 2 points of tough #6 Bay Area, but were steamrolled by #5 Rose City by 78 and completely shut down by #2 Gotham by 233. In August, #16 Minnesota almost pulled out an upset, losing by 17, which drops Philly out of the top 10 for the first time ever in the Power Rankings. They get either Carolina or London in their first game at Eastern Regionals. | ||||
|
3 E | 2011 7-6 2010 10-8 |
9/16 @ Boston | Holding steady at #12 after a 250-96 shellacking of Madison in August, Charm City will be up against #25 Boston in their first game at the East Regional tournament they'll be hosting in Baltimore in two weeks. | ||||
|
2 NC | 2011 7-11 2010 11-3 |
TBD | A rough August for Detroit saw them go 0-5 against tough competition -- Denver, Rocky Mountain, Texas, Windy City and Bay Area all put them down -- but respectable results at the Golden Bowl, particularly a 8 point loss to Texas and a 45 point loss to Bay Area, keep them locked in at #13. Detroit pulls either Brewcity or Ohio in their first game of North Centrals. | ||||
|
5 E | 2011 15-5 2010 13-5 |
9/16 @ Steel City | Whomped Connecticut and Providence in similar games by a total of nearly 500 points (246 against Connecticut and 250 against Providence). At East Regionals in two weeks, they're up against #15 Steel City in a rematch of a close April game in London, where Steel City was victorious 144-121. | ||||
|
4 E | 2011 9-5 2010 12-4 |
9/16 @ Montreal | Pittsburgh's crew didn't have it easy last month in a knock-down drag-out battle against #18 Cincinnati, needing almost the full 60 minutes to secure a 29-point win. Their only loss since April was a fairly close one against #9 Windy City, by 30 points in July, and they'll try to add to a strong summer against Montreal at Regionals. | ||||
|
3 NC | 2011 8-2 2010 9-3 |
TBD | Minnesota had a surprisingly strong performance on the road against #11 Philly and were almost able to score an upset, but fell 17 points short in the end. They remain stuck behind Charm, Detroit, Montreal and Steel City, though, based on all 4 of those teams putting in stronger performances against #9 Windy City than Minnesota was able to muster (Windy took Minnesota down by 67 points in May). Minnesota draws a struggling Madison in the first round of North Centrals in early October. | ||||
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4 NC | 2011 9-2 2010 13-5 |
9/10 @ Nashville | Naptown finally gets back on the track against #19 Nashville this weekend after a long hiatus -- they haven't played since wins over Madison and Omaha in late May. North Central teams will probably be paying close attention to that result to see if the NC tournament hosts have stepped up their game in the intervening months. | ||||
|
5 NC | 2011 4-6 2010 10-5 |
9/9 @ Rat City | A 15 point win against No Coast and a 29 point loss to Steel City defined Cincinnati's August. They'll try their skills against #1 Oly this weekend on September 11 in their last regular season game before taking on Naptown at North Centrals. Naptown has already defeated Cincinnati once this year in a surprisingly solid 167-94 game in April. | ||||
|
3 SC | 2011 5-3 2010 11-5 |
9/10 vs Naptown | Nashville has popped on and off the rankings a couple of times this year -- this month, they jump out of #25 and up into the top 20 with a 31-point defeat of previous #20 Carolina. Their game against Naptown this weekend gives them one more chance to make a statement before going into the South Central tournament against Tampa Bay at the very end of the month. | ||||
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8 NC | 2011 8-4 2010 7-5 |
9/10 vs Brewcity | After a short absence, the Outfit rides back into the Power Rankings with the help of rising Nashville -- in June, Nashville and the Outfit played a close game that went to Nashville by 26 points, 115-89. They have NC tournament warmup games against Brewcity (this weekend) and Paper Valley (October 1) before going for a tiebreaker matchup with #21 Arch Rival at Regionals. | ||||
|
9 NC | 2011 8-4 2010 4-12 |
TBD | Arch Rival is pretty much pinned to the Outfit right now, as the teams traded similar-margin victories this year -- 129-72 to ARRG in May and 164-104 to the Outfit in July. There's nothing on the schedule for the St. Louis crew until the rematch at North Central regionals on October 7. | ||||
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10 E | 2011 0-4 2010 3-2 |
9/16 @ Carolina | 2011's most controversial tournament participant hosted defending WFTDA champs and current #3 Rocky Mountain in August and went down to a 228-49 loss -- not very auspicious on paper, but also nearly identical to the results for #13 Detroit against Rocky a week previous (212-41). We continue to believe that London's 0-4 record is mitigated by their strength of schedule - and that'll get put to the test when they meet #23 Carolina on Friday, September 16 at Eastern Regionals. | ||||
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7 E | 2011 15-1 2010 8-10 |
9/16 @ London | With Carolina pinned to Tampa based on a very narrow 126-116 win in May, Carolina slides a few on their loss to previous #25 Nashville along with Boston's continuing problems this year (Tampa's 6 point win against Boston in June was the result that originally brought Carolina and Tampa into the top 25). Although Carolina sports a gaudy 15-1 record with many big wins, the overwhelming majority of them have come against seriously overmatched teams. They get their moment of truth in two weeks, though, up against #22 London in the opening round of the Eastern Regionals. | ||||
|
7 SC | 2011 5-6 2010 7-12 |
TBD | Tampa hasn't had much chance to build on their ranking after entering the top 25 with a 6 point upset of Boston in June; they beat Santa Cruz 109-77 in August for their only result since, and await the South Central tournament where they'll take on #19 Nashville in the first round. | ||||
|
6 E | 2011 5-8 2010 5-9 |
9/16 @ Charm City | A big 116-point win over Jet City is Boston's only recent bright spot; many of their results this year have been illustrative of their fade since 2010, most recently a 239-61 loss to Rose City that compares unflatteringly to their 87-61 performance last year. They'll have their hands full when they go up against #12 Charm City for their third Eastern Regionals meeting in a row on Friday, September 16. | ||||
| Key: | |
| E | WFTDA East region |
| W | WFTDA West region |
| NC | WFTDA North Central region |
| SC | WFTDA South Central region |
Comments
Cincinnati's Schedule
Didn't know where to send this info, but FYI: Cincinnati Rollergirls will also be playing Rat City this weekend, and Ohio later this month. So before Regionals, Cincy's sanctioned WFTDA schedule is: Sept. 9 @ Rat City, Sept. 11 @ Oly, Sept. 24 @ Ohio.
This works
Schedule info can also be provided using the Submit link, or emailed to bouts@derbynewsnetwork.com. Of course, publishing Power Rankings is often how we find out about, like, 50% of closed-door bouts :)
I'm rather fond of email submissions...
Sending simple things like scores and bout information to our scores@derbynewsnetwork.com and bouts@derbynewsnetwork.com addresses gets 'em to me a bit faster. It also makes it a lot easier for me to prioritize things based upon the subject line (which submissions don't tend to have).
Oh and...
...apologies for posting before Rev Norb's official outrage. ;)
Happily yapping away
First of all, congratulations on your insanely accurate prediction percentage. Keep this up and prepare to be investigated, I'll call the Federal Trade Commission to see if you're fixing roller derby games.
I'm surprised and impressed by your decision to lower Philly to eleventh. I was thinking Philly should be lower too, but to tenth, anyway eleventh is close enough. Philly is quite a mystery, they seem to be having some roster issues this year, you just don't know what Philly is going to be playing. Hopefully they'll come to Easterns strong or they could be missing from Nationals this year.
Nashville is back in the top 20 and I'm happy to see Chicago and Arch Rival are also back on the listing. After that you made my eyes pop.
Clearly you're picking London to beat Carolina at Easterns ... I understand this decision. London is one of the world's great cities and it has it's share of world class athletes and that athletic talent is represented in the London Rollergirls.
I believe that Carolina's experience will win out over London's superior athleticism. Last year Carolina's experience trumped Montreal's superior athleticism and I believe Carolina can repeat that triumph. That said, I know that experience is not enough to beat superior athleticism, otherwise Oly would not have won the Championship in 2009.
Anyway I have a rule, if the ranking only one place from where I'd put it, outrage is not called for. All in all, I approve, another insightful if not bold ranking this month.
More yapping
With the onset of regionals, one of the things I have found interesting, being the derby nerd that I am, is comparing September's power ranking of 2010 to 2011.
It's interesting how somethings have stayed the same and others have changed.
Perhaps someone can tell me how to enter columnar data
Interesting indeed
The Top 13 teams are the same with the exceptions of Boston (big drop) and KC (big jump).
Now what will be REALLY fun will be comparing the Post-Championships rankings to see if the Top 3 change or not! :-)
Perhaps someone can tell me...
Perhaps someone can tell me how to enter columnar data
You generally can't because of our comment HTML filter. But we have the power; just ask.
WHAT??? IT'S AN OUTRAGE I
WHAT??? IT'S AN OUTRAGE I TELL YOU!!!
Double posts: Good sources of additional outrage!
Double posts: Good sources of additional outrage!
superior athleticism?
I'm perplexed. It seems that there is a yardstick by which we measure athleticism? What makes one team more or less athletic than another at this stage of the game?
I mean, in the great scheme of things, what is opined on the DNN message boards is not what really matters...but since that phrase was put out there, I'm curious what it is supposed to convey.
player?
daisy. are you a skater? if you are im sure that you have noticed that some of the girls in your league are faster and stronger than others. that some can make plays that others cant? you know, athleticism...
your post is troll? i cant tell.
Athleticism
I'm perplexed. It seems that there is a yardstick by which we measure athleticism? What makes one team more or less athletic than another at this stage of the game?
In the context of roller derby, I take superior athleticism to mean those that can skate faster, jump higher, change directions more quickly, stay on the track longer, and do things on skates that other people could not do. A more athletic team would have more "more athletic" skaters than a comparable team.
But athleticism alone doesn't mean a thing in sports. It's the application of that athleticism, the clashing of opposing athletes, and the marriage of all of that in a team environment that matters in the end.
Still, a team with "more" athleticism on their team will have more options and abilities and strategies available to them than a team that doesn't have as much. Teamwork is great and all, but if you're low on skills, conditioning and training as an athlete, the other team is going to have an easier time beating you.
Re: Athleticism
I realize you're not actually applying your statements to Carolina, but just for the record...
If those are the metrics we're using to proclaim that London is superior in terms of athleticism to Carolina, I'd have to disagree. I've seen seven of Carolina's bouts this year, four of which were live (and I announced their Tampa and River City bouts). To say they would be low on any of those attributes would be a poor statement. Again, I understand that you're posing a hypothetical situation, but I'd actually say that London and Carolina are equal in terms of their athletic abilities.
I know I'm looking forward to that bout. Should be a great one.
BRAINS!!!!
Bigger, stronger, faster doesn't mean dick without the brains to control it.
Agreed. About as many times
Agreed. About as many times as I can agree... agreed.
Oh snap!
Roxy Rockett just called London dumb! You gonna take that, London?!
In all seriousness, I agree with Sashion Victim that treating London vs Carolina as a battle of athleticism vs experience doesn't seem quite right. I have not gotten to see Carolina play live since last Regionals, but I did see 3 of London's 4 bouts live, and think the teams are fairly well matched in terms of athleticism; I don't see London noticeably overpowering or outracing Carolina. That said, Carolina unquestionably has much deeper experience as an organization, but that in itself isn't enough either (case in point: Madison this year).
Long story short, I am looking forward to next Friday.
Shame on you, Justice!
Long story short, I am looking forward to next Friday.
Aha! So you're not looking forward to the other four tournaments in the Big Five?
SHAME ON YOU, Justice Feelgood Marshall!
And I mean that with all of the sheer douchiness that all posts including those three capsed words usually carry along for the ride. Shame on you!!!!
My yardstick
Superior athleticism is perhaps an unfortunate phrase, but that's my fault. The yardstick I used is the traditional one, that of, bigger, faster, stronger.
i get it
thanks for clarifying. didn't mean to open a can of worms, just asking.
no trolling
i'm not a troll. i skate for carolina.
London vs Carolina
I am super excited to see this bout. I do believe that superior athleticism wins, however; who are the better athletes is yet to be seen....I really think this is going to be the best regional playoff with the most potential for upsets.
My top 3 picks...
Gotham (duh)
Charm City (the only thing that may hinder the progression of Charm is the stress of putting on the tournament)
Montreal ( Whom I believe are still the most under-rated team in the rankings)
I'm also predicting Carolina to have a real strong showing against tough teams.
Wearing no pants..
Rev Al Mighty
can I turn this into...
... another east vs west region argument?
Actually, I'm curious to know what people think the potential upsets are in the east because I think the best regionals will be the western regionals again this year. Not just because we will see six of the top 10 teams in the world competing but also because I believe there is a lot more potential for upsets, as was the case last year.
Let's see, upsets in eastern regionals in 2010, um, Carolina over Montreal. I think that was the only one. But at western regionals 2010, you had Rose over Rat (DNN ranking upset but not WFTDA), BAD over Denver, Rat over Denver, Rocky over Oly.
I'd love to be hear an argument for Easterns being more exciting this year. Granted, DNN and WFTDA disagree on Montreal vs Steel. I'm picking Montreal which would be a WFTDA upset. I'd agree that there's a chance for an upset for Charm over Philly. And Montreal over Philly. But I think despite Philly's off play this year they'll pull together a strong tournament performance as they tend to do.
But in the west I think we could see upsets including: BAD over Rose, Rat over Denver, Rose over Oly, Denver over Rocky, Rose over Denver, Rocky over Oly. Obviously some of those are more likely than others, and I'm leaning toward an Oly sweep this year. But I still think westerns will be the most exciting regional tournament. I could be biased since I will be attending...
don't forget north central!
if I remember correctly, NC regionals had the closest bouts of the big 5. #7 moved to #2, and no upset that large occurred at other tournaments. Naptown moved up pretty significantly as well. Even though NC is not as overall strong as the west or east, I think it is definitely the most evenly matched region, if that makes sense. There is way more potential for upsets, large and small, and more potential for close bouts again this year. The very first bout of the tournament is Arch Rival and the Outfit, two teams that have played twice, once a 60pt win for ARRG, then a 60pt win for the Outfit. It really could go either way and if the Outfit wins that they go on to face Windy City. How can anyone not be excited for that?!
For comparison, thanks to Flat Track Stats nifty tournament option, the spreads from NC Regionals: 44 103 89 92 19 7 29 66 25 12 122 1 57 54 62 22 49 average: 48
West: 14 14 17 4 248 139 335 234 39 98 69 201 126 54 9 31 41 average: 98
East: 56 76 74 62 300 186 110 265 137 106 99 2 88 233 39 34 29 average: 111
While seeing super amazing teams like Oly, Rocky, and Gotham destroy other teams is great because of how amazing they are, it can also be boring to watch one team rack up 200 points. Most of the time it's more exciting to see more closely matched teams play even if they aren't as amazing (but still obviously amazing!)
This is my argument for NC regionals and why everyone should be watching the Outfit vs Arch Rival while they're at work/waking up on that Friday. =)
that is a really good point
And you backed up your point with numbers, always a plus. Excitement could be judged on how many bouts are close. However, it doesn't totally sit right for me for westerns. I'm not hard core enough to go to every bout this year and I didn't watch every bout last year. For better or worse there is a big gap between the top 6 teams in the west and the next 4. I won't be watching those unless Rose falls to BAD then I might watch Rose wallop the lower teams.
Going over the spreads and eliminating bouts of top 6 vs next 4: 14 14 17 4 39 98 126 54 9 31 41 - average 41
And if one was only going to watch the top 6 against each other (which is my plan this year): 17 4 39 98 9 31 41 - average 34
I'm not sure this is applicable to other regions because the west does have this big gap that I don't think any other region has.
So while it may be true that if one was to watch every bout NC might be more exciting because of the lack of blowouts, for the west, if one just avoids the top 6 vs next 4 it could prove most exciting.
The thing about derby is that
The thing about derby is that something completely unexpected that defies all established logic will happen, somewhere. And we will see it and dig it.
Zing!
Or, the more common response of outrage.
Carolina's got this. It's
Carolina's got this. It's all about the motion of the ocean.
Steel Vs montreal
Now that I have had a few months to take off my coach/bench manager hat for Steel City I feel I can better absorb the realities of Derby-dom.
That being said I understand some people's undying love of our day-glo spandex wearing sisters to the north. I saw their intensity first hand calling lines against them in London and was damn impressed by their adaptability and athleticism.
However, to skip straight away to speculating a montreal vs. philly match-up, (as derbynerd has done,) when Montreal could barely stand ground with Charm, and fully discount the depth of weaponry in the Steel arsenal is folly. All of Steel's rostered skaters can be interchanged almost seemlessly to provide up-tempo or slow grudge match style play. A close game there will be. But I count neither team out until the final whistles and the points are tallied.
By all means though we here in The Steel City welcome underestimation and flat-out disrespect. I guess it is what makes us, us and everyone else a statistic. YINZ!
DNN Report Card
Comparison of DNN's pre-tourney rankings to the final results. Not too far off...
DNN:
1. Gotham
2. Philly
3. Charm
4. Montreal
5. Steel
6. London
7. Carolina
8. Boston
E.R.P.:
1. Gotham
2. Philly
3. Charm
4. Steel (+1)
5. London (+1)
6. Montreal (-2)
7. Boston (+1)
8. Dutchland (N/A)
9. Carolina (-2)
10. Maine (N/A)