Rankings Speculation Open Thread
While the fan-friendliness of the Regionals tournament structure will probably continue to be debated, there's no doubt that it did wildly succeed in one intended way -- with all participating teams playing either three or four bouts over the course of the weekends, it's a heck of a lot easier to compare teams now for accurate rankings.
I spent some time playing with the very awesome, very derby-nerd friendly Rank Wrench tool over at Flat Track Stats and came up with what I thought were fairly accurate top-25 rankings, given the results of the regionals. I completely expect that not all of you will agree with me -- which is great, because that is why the good Lord invented blog comments.
1. Gotham
2. Texas
These two are pretty straightforward. Both teams won the championship bouts of their respective tournaments handily, and the one time that they faced each other, Gotham won handily.
3. Philly
4. Rat City
Potential controversy erupts even before we get out of the top four. Even though Philly and Rat City finished 3rd and Windy City and Bay Area finished 2nd at their tournaments, I'm inclined to rank Philly and Rat City higher overall due to their much better performances against the tournament's eventual victor, with Philly barely getting the higher placement for their game being slightly closer.
5. Windy City
6. Bay Area
Same reasoning as 3 & 4 here. Both teams were beaten solidly in their championship bouts, but Windy City's 133-92 loss to Gotham was considerably closer than Bay Area's 135-59 defeat by Texas. (Of note -- both Windy City and Bay Area lost critical players to expulsion in those games -- Shocka Conduit for WCR and Taxi Scab for Bay Area; what effect those losses had on the final scores is a Great Unknowable.)
7. Carolina
8. Duke City
The 4th place teams from the tournaments close out the top eight. Very difficult to determine which one should be atop the other here, for a number of reasons. They both lost their last two games of their tournament handily, and by almost the exact same point differentials -- a total of -104 for Carolina and -107 for Duke City -- but I'm giving the advantage to Carolina here due to their lack of key player Roxy Rockett in their last Easterns bout.
9. Rose City
10. Kansas City
This one is tough -- both teams went 2-1 at Western Regionals, but did not face one another. However, Rose City's loss was to Bay Area, who proceeded to beat the team that Kansas City lost to, Duke City. Additionally, both Rose City and Kansas City played Denver, with Rose City claiming the larger margin of victory (114-61 in Rose / Denver, against 132-90 in Kansas City / Denver.) Advantage goes to Rose City here.
11. Boston
12. Madison
13. Charm City
14. Detroit
These four teams seem extremely well matched to me, and it seems that right now, any of them could beat any of the others on any given day. But forced to put them in some sort of order, Boston gets the nod over Madison for their (nail-biting, last-jam) 90-88 win at Easterns, Madison gets the nod over Charm City for their (nail-biting, last-jam) 108-101 win over them back in July, and Charm City gets the nod over Detroit for their (maybe not nail-biting, but at least knuckle-chewing) 105-84 win at Easterns.
It should be noted that Detroit came very close to beating Philly at Easterns, 102-92, and it seems a little odd to rank them so much further below where I have Philly -- but then again, that's the same curse Boston suffered in the 2007 cycle, where they came within an overtime jam of defeating Detroit in the opening round but then had to spend a year in the mid-teens of the rankings while Detroit sat in the top 8 for nearly a full year.
15. Rocky Mountain
16. Pikes Peak
Two more teams that seem very closely matched. Rocky Mountain went 1-2 at Westerns, but had the misfortune of taking on two of the tournament's toughest teams, Texas and Rose City. Their one win was a 141-116 over Houston, while Pikes Peak took a slightly closer win over Houston at 129-116, so Rocky Mountain gets the nod here.
17. Denver
18. Cincinnati
19. Houston
Both Eastern Cincinnati and Western Denver had impressive performances against more established teams at their respective tournaments, with both scoring two upsets each (Cincinnati over Grand Raggidy and Minnesota, and Denver over Tucson and Dallas.) If it was possible to have a rankings tie, this would be it -- Cincinnati beat Minnesota 89-58 and Denver beat Minnesota by exactly one more point last month, 89-57. So since somebody's gotta be ahead of the other ... it's Denver.
Houston lands just below these two on the the strength of the similarities between Houston and Denver's experience with Dallas -- Denver won by 57, while Houston won by 25.
20. Grand Raggidy
21. Minnesota
These two teams had remarkably similar experiences at Easterns, playing three of the same teams. Both trounced Providence (+115 for Grand Raggidy, +127 for Minnesota) and both were handled by Madison (-47 for Grand Raggidy, -76 for Minnesota) and also by Cincinnati (-44 for Grand Raggidy and -31 for Minnesota). Add those all up and Grand Raggidy had a +24 against shared opponents while Minnesota had a +20 ... advantage (barely) Grand Raggidy.
22. Tucson
23. Dallas
24. Providence
Tucson pulled out their only tournament win over Dallas, while Dallas and Providence went winless. Providence was twice held to extremely low point totals (21 against Grand Raggidy, and just 16 against Minnesota) while Dallas broke 50 in all of their losses, so Dallas gets the nod over Providence.
... And a Special Extra Ranking just because the unbreakable rules of sports journalism mean you have to have a Top 25, not a Top 24 ...
25. Sacred City
I have never seen Sacred City in action, but the fact that they lost to Bay Area by a very narrow 15 point margin in July, 99-84, makes me think that #25 is actually far too low a ranking for them ... if that final was representative of their skill level, they're going to be a serious force in the next couple of quarters.
Again, just my opinion. Agree? Disagree? Pleased? Livid? Let's hear it in the comments.
- Justice Feelgood Marshall's blog
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Comments
Boooooo.
That is all.
Please,
expound :)
JFM
Boo is the new woo. Except for in this case.
I'm a little bummed about BAD being placed in the 6th position when we took 2nd at Western. I do get what you're saying. But we just didn't have a good game. It sucks that rankings have to be based on as little as one game these days. Some day it'll change, but for now we have to go based on one horrible game or one awesome game sometimes.
I like that you included Sacred on the list. In my opinion, they got a bum rap and deserved to be competing at Regionals this year. If they had, they'd most certainly be up atleast 10 places higher. Due to the games they played this year, I'd put them right around the ranking of Pike's Peak. It's a shame they were ranked so slow before the tournament invites were handed out.
Sacred
Sacred should be a force this coming year, although they have had some key players move around, I think they will be very competetive.
I was so SO impressed watching Boston (on the web of course, thanks for the video!) All I could think of was how badly both Boston and BADG did when we went to Seattle for Bumbmerbout and how little time it can take to equalize, strategize and come back from having your ass handed to you. Let's hope the same theory works for Nationals!!!
mindiannapolis500
derby slave
Bay Area Derby Girls
5 is Live
I'll take the WCR at #5, but I don't have to like it :op
I happen to believe that they are good enough to at least be in the top four (if not in the top two!), but I can see the reasoning behind the placement of them at #5 ;o)
The bottom line is that winning earns respect. I am hoping that at Nationals The Windy City Rollers show to the nation what their fans already know about how good they really are :o)
W! C! R!
W! C! R!
W! C! R!
W! C! R!
:flagwavingpyramidlift:
GOTHAM......
...why Windy will ALWAYS be Second City!
The Original GGRDonald
LIVE FROM NEW YORK, IT'S DERBY NIGHT!!!!!!!
I'll take the WCR at #5, but I don't have to like it :op
I happen to believe that they are good enough to at least be in the top four (if not in the top two!), but I can see the reasoning behind the placement of them at #5 ;o)
The bottom line is that winning earns respect. I am hoping that at Nationals The Windy City Rollers show to the nation what their fans already know about how good they really are :o)
W! C! R!
W! C! R!
W! C! R!
W! C! R!
:flagwavingpyramidlift:
Nationals
I could care less what we get ranked this quarter.
A lot of this will be settled at Nationals.
Can't wait!
Taxi Scab
Head Coach and Co-Captain
B.ay A.rea D.erby Girls All-Stars
You are absolutely right
Seriously. Everyone pay attention. For the folks at nationals they care about the fact they are THERE first, their seeding second. I don't think a single one of them cares about their ranking (and won't until 2nd quarter 2009)
This is The Right Attitude to Have
Must respect to JFM for his thorough analysis, but it's really an op-ed that's semi-grounded in fact (e.g., we know who are the teams who will, in some arrangement, make up the top 8 teams in The WFTDA).
You can disagree with his analysis, or you can work hard to show that your league is underestimated - whether because you believe yourselves to belong higher on this list, or because you believe you belong on this list to begin with.
ITA, Scab
I could care less what we get ranked this quarter.
A lot of this will be settled at Nationals.
Can't wait!
Taxi Scab
Head Coach and Co-Captain
B.ay A.rea D.erby Girls All-Stars
As long as the Stripes stay impartial, it will be decided in Portland.
The Original GGRDonald
Quicksilver was as impartial as Keith Olbermann.
Just sayin'
That is as untrue as it is uncalled-for, and if you're one-tenth the GGRD fan you claim to be, perhaps you should THINK before dragging their name into your attacks on other leagues, skaters, officials, etc.
eh
that is all...
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
WOW *blush*
Justice,
Thanks for the vote of confidence. And you're right.... we ARE going to be a force to be reckoned with next season. Count on it. :)
~ Vicious Token
Sacred City Derby Girls
I doubt i was the only
I doubt i was the only person who left Easterns thinking "Hey! Wouldn't it have been cool to see WCR and Philly play head-to-head this weekend???" Obviously the only answer is to expand the tournament to 64 games, spread out across a nine-day period. I'll put in for vacation immediately.
YES
I second that motion 9 days and 64 games, fuck.
I doubt i was the only person who left Easterns thinking "Hey! Wouldn't it have been cool to see WCR and Philly play head-to-head this weekend???" Obviously the only answer is to expand the tournament to 64 games, spread out across a nine-day period. I'll put in for vacation immediately.
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
forget vacation
this is a slippery slope to all living on a derby compound somewhere where any disagreements will be settled by challenge bouts. You didn't pass the salt fast enough? Gather you jammers, I'll see you on the track in 15min!
Derby series?
I strongly think that derby, at least in tournaments, should be played in series, not single games. Best of 3 in early rounds, best of 5 or 7 later?!?!?! Light years away, but a derby fanatic can dream...
Coach Caesar
Ohio Roller Girls
re: Derby series?
That might make more sense if roller derby were a series-based sport. Having a series-based playoff system for a single-game league feels contrived, like the NBA playoffs. Derby would also need to break out of its "weekend sport" mold, since all of the series-based playoff systems are for sports played throughout the week.
I'm not saying it'll never happen, just that there's a lot of things that'd have to change before a tournament series would feel right.
- bjmacke (a.k.a. Apron)
Excellent points on why a series won't happen
Additionally, roller derby is a contact sport. Baseball and basketball aren't.
As far as it breaking out of its "weekend sport" mold, it's probably good to note that one of the more likely reasons (aside from TV ratings) that professional roller derby had the "kayfabe" aspect is because the teams were skating 200+ games a year. Many of them were skating with injuries.
-Barely even speaking for myself...
*~[
Grand Poobah
Sin City Stat Pack
Fabulous Sin City Rollergirls
The Logic of Series Play and Derby
The idea of series play in sports is to have teams establish a true "best of" over a series of successive contests. Their structure is arranged to ensure that each contest is played by a "fresh" squad. The cost of derby in terms of money, time, and resources to skaters more or less ensures it can't happen at this point in time.
Of course, they can't always genuinely establish a true "best of." Look at the Red Sox/No-Longer-"Devil" Rays series. Came down to the last outs of game 7. In that case, who can conclusively say who the genuinely better team is? (sorry, pantless wonders, that's the best praise I can give your losing baseball team ;)
The only way it could be done would be, say, a best of 3 over the course of a Friday-Saturday-Sunday. And, as we know based on how tough and exhausting of a sport derby is, those Sunday bouts wouldn't start off as equitable as the Friday event would.
Also, if I remember correctly, "kayfabe" is a wrestling term referring to holding "respect" for the 'sport' by not exposing the fact that it was a "work" (i.e., fixed/controlled/predetermined/fake/whatever you prefer). Derby *had* kayfabe, but it was not kayfabe. It was worked. (let this be a lesson to not get me started on talking pro wrestling!)
The point I was trying to
The point I was trying to make wasn't that certain eras of roller derby/rollergames were majorly "worked" (a bit in the 50s, moreso in the 60s, majorly in the 70s to 90s). It was that there were probably some damned good reasons for it to be worked. Had the skaters REALLY been hitting one another with all of those elbows and forewarms (and in later decades, body slams) there would have been a greater difficulty in rounding up enough skaters for a game day to day.
If you want to get what I'm saying, search on YouTube for Loretta's match race with Gerry Murray, then search on anything from the 70s and 80s skaters. Then watch some Rollerjam. One can imagine that once the network coverage of the 50s got dialed down to the hit-and-miss syndication of the 70s and 80s, greater attempts had to be made to compete with Rollergames and of course pro wrestling. What I am getting at is, this may have not been such a calculated effort as it was a necessity.
-Barely even speaking for myself...
*~[
Grand Poobah
Sin City Stat Pack
Fabulous Sin City Rollergirls
just to devil's advocate
Ice hockey is a contact sport in which the series is certainly made more interesting by fatigue and travel between cities and injuries and ejections and so on. Winning a series in 4 games gives you a sweet little week off, whereas going into game 7 is a crazy frenzy of fans and pressure and excitement.
Plus there's the whole "Lord Stanley's Cup is all polished and ready backstage with two mens in white gloves standing by just in case tonight is the night!" vibe, which is pretty awesome.
Had to mention it, just in case we were looking for a model of a contact sport that participates in series play in which the stars generally play most to all of the games, even with injury.
Reckless (Grew up wathcing UW hockey at the Alliant Energy Center in Madison, WI and sat in her old seat in section 308 to watch some derby not too long ago)
Charm City Roller Girls
ps. when I played basketball it was a contact sport. I'll admit it's not a FULL CONTACT sport like derby- but I knocked more teeth out on a basketball court than I did on the ice or the derby track to date. Be careful not to underestimate ladies who play in the paint. and god bless mouthguards.
Just to Devil's Advocate Your Devil's Advocate
Hockey players, as you know, wear a helluva lot more padding than y'all.
For what that's worth. I don't think, for a moment, that the exhaustion of skating is what really takes the toll (but it is, at the least, *there*). The scrapes and bruises on the legs, hips, and chest and what do y'in.
Oh lawd a'mighty, the deep bruises. Yow.
Of course, I'm just a zebra, so what do I know?
Both of you, please stop speaking for Devil's Advo-Kate.
She's the only one registered with that name (and she slaps a mean stand-up bass). I will gladly let her know that you're both interested in her opinion on this matter.
-Barely even speaking for myself...
*~[
Grand Poobah
Sin City Stat Pack
Fabulous Sin City Rollergirls
sounds brutal
and loooooong. Playing 2 bouts in a day is tiring. 2 bouts per day x 3 days is down right intimidating. A 7 bouts series to advance one step in a tournament bracket is making me light headed just thinking about it.
intriguing to be sure. and definately not for the faint of heart. or those who have anything at all to do besides derby in the months it will take to complete the process. the troubling counter point to having teams go head to head to head and back again is that there as SO MANY leagues out there who it would be great to skate against, and fielding a consistant roster over the course of the year is tough even in the one bout and out format.
Don't get me wrong- I love a good series, I'm just doing some math and thinking about buying stock in anything that injects super human strength directly into skaters' legs. At least in the short term- I'd much rather face MORE opponents in double or multiple elimination style tournaments than have the top teams go against the same opponents over and over again. but I'm a sucka for cinderella stories!
Reckless
Charm City Roller Girls
hmmm
I disagree with the rankings as far as 3-6 goes, but as far as I'm concerned, Nationals will sort it all out.
Philly v.WCR
I would LOVE for a rematch with those loverly liberty belles!!!!!
we'd love it too!!
philly LOVES windy city.
frankly, the top 6 teams could all be ranked differently on any given day. that's what is so amazing about derby: the constant growth and development of the sport and skaters.
yep.
violet,
i totally agree. the 8 teams on the east are such great players and sometimes it really comes down to who has the best day. who's injured, who ate a heavy meal beforehand and feels sluggish, who are their wheaties--there are the little things that, in my opinion, can decide a game.
see you sunday! xoxo
teacher a. lesson
Broad Street Butchers
Philly Rollergirls
www.phillyrollerderby.com
No Comment
I'm not saying a word about the outcome of National's until the plane ride home on Monday. Okay, maybe Sunday at the bar...
Until then, the candles get lit every day, new flowers on Friday, and the little skulls stay in "wall" formation, with the jammer-skull out in front.
As for Sacred; there's a lot of respect for those ladies out here.
DCD; no venue, no fans, no season, no problem.
Do what you like.....
I'm not saying a word about the outcome of National's until the plane ride home on Monday. Okay, maybe Sunday at the bar...
Until then, the candles get lit every day, new flowers on Friday, and the little skulls stay in "wall" formation, with the jammer-skull out in front.
As for Sacred; there's a lot of respect for those ladies out here.
DCD; no venue, no fans, no season, no problem.
I respect what Duke City did, but playing against the steamroller that is Gotham is a whole other kettle of fish. Whoever wins the Slay/E Vil battle(i.e. stays outta da box) will win.
The Original GGRDonald
Gotham-WHY WINDY WILL ALWAYS BE SECOND CITY!!!!!
simmer down
Sometimes, dude, you kind of seem like a troll.
You like Gotham, we get it. But don't trash talk other leagues to make your point.
SOLID
SOLID
Gotham must
respect the speed, hunger, and possible "devil may care" tude of Duke City. They didn't expect to get to the nationals and probably believe they've got nothing to lose.
Thanks
CynicalGuy, I can't speak for the ladies, but I would agree with you. And I will be in Portland to give them every ounce of energy I can; from the stands or from the floor.
They have a lot to look forward to next season, and every feather that weekend is only going to make it better.
I think "hunger" is the applicable word.
Duke City Derby
no venue, no fans, no season, no problem
At the same time.....
Gotham lost to a #4 seed last year, and I doubt they're gonna take Duke City lightly.
The Original Troll
would rather be a Douchebag than be Awesome. ;-)
9-16
for 9-16, what was your rationale behind breaking it up like that? i.e. 9 and 10 are two West teams, 11-14 are the four extremely well matched East teams, then 15 and 16 two more West teams. like, why are KC and Rose necessarily higher ranked than Boston/Charm/Detroit/Madison? i'm not arguing one way or the other, it is a really tough call.
Well....
I actually like it.
At least I like that Houston is moving up, finally.
And I agree that BADG should be up in the top 5, but as Vee said, that will all be sorted out at Nationals.
Eh....
Thanks for putting this together.
But the logic you used to come up with some of your rankings I don't agree with. Using a transitive property-like approach just doesn't work. It's like saying the University of Toledo is better than the Wisconsin Badgers since Michigan beat Wisconsin. Or that Appalachian State is better than Florida for the same reason. It just doesn't jive.
Your speculation is quite spot on for the top 10, but when you get into the rest of the rankings is where I see where a lot of changes could be made.
Charm City vs. Boston
But forced to put them in some sort of order, Boston gets the nod over Madison for their (nail-biting, last-jam) 90-88 win at Easterns, Madison gets the nod over Charm City for their (nail-biting, last-jam) 108-101 win over them back in July, and Charm City gets the nod over Detroit for their (maybe not nail-biting, but at least knuckle-chewing) 105-84 win at Easterns.
Both Boston and Charm City played Cincinnati at Regionals; Charm City won by 75 points, while Boston won by 56. That seems like a more direct and current comparison than two bouts against the same team, played 3 months apart, whose outcomes were a complete crapshoot till the very end. Besides, the leagues suffered reversed fates against Rocky Mountain in the same timespan, with Charm City beating them in March and Boston losing to them in June; both outcomes were slightly more definitive than the Madison bouts.
It also bears noting that while Boston came much closer to beating Carolina than Charm City did to beating Windy City, and while Carolina came into the tournament with a higher seed, Windy City beat Carolina by a respectable margin in later stages of competition and left in second place to Carolina's fourth. Boston's bout against Carolina was their only Regionals match-up against a higher-seeded team. Charm City, on the other hand, won against Detroit, who were the fifth seed and have held onto a top-10 ranking for a year.
In other words, I thought about this a lot and decided to wait till March 21 before saying that one league is better than the other. ;)
March 21!!!!
In other words, I thought about this a lot and decided to wait till March 21 before saying that one league is better than the other. ;)
The last CCRG v BDD bout was one of the most exciting games I've ever seen. The win resulted from when Busey jumped the track lines to pass a couple people and called it off. It was ridiculously intense!
Anna
Boston Massacre: The pantsless wonders of Massachusetts
agree
That was my final bout *sniff* with CCRG's interleague team. It was a great one! Both teams played our asses off. Ah, memories.
-Betty
I wish this bout were
I wish this bout were happening sooner. :D
Suppose i'll disagree
Both Boston and Charm City played Cincinnati at Regionals; Charm City won by 75 points, while Boston won by 56. That seems like a more direct and current comparison than two bouts against the same team, played 3 months apart, whose outcomes were a complete crapshoot till the very end.;)
I'll disagree with that for the sake of conversation. To my knowledge, there is nothing in derbyology, written or unwritten, that suggests that winning by 75 points is more beneficial to a team's status than winning by 56. As such, one can only speculate on what the final score *might* have been had Boston thought that their 56 point margin of victory was going to eventually be compared to Charm City's 75 point margin ((by us)), so i don't think 75 vs. 56 is a tremendously valid rankings measurable.
I believe that the flat track stats site has a function built into their rankings algorithm that eventually levels off the significance of blowout wins/losses, which is good, because it tends to eliminate things like "what? Minnesota beat Providence by 127? Now we have to beat them by 140 to keep our spot in the rankings!" and the like...
Huh?
one can only speculate on what the final score *might* have been had Boston thought that their 56 point margin of victory was going to eventually be compared to Charm City's 75 point margin ((by us))
Am I missing something here, or are you insinuating that Boston would have performed any differently if they thought their ranking depended on it? If so, that's just as spurious as "they only won because (fill in the blank) didn't play," "they had the home court advantage," "the refs were biased," or any other rationale as to why one team fares better than another. *Every* bout counts in the rankings, and people *do* look at how different teams fare against the same competitor, because that's really the most reliable yardstick they have to go by. In this particular case, both teams have played a lot of the same competitors, but usually at points in time that are different enough to make direct comparison difficult. Two fairly recent exceptions are Regionals, when both teams played Cincinnati, and ECE, when they both played Houston.
Having said that, I do think this particular team grouping is too close to call, and it'll be interesting to see how things change in the next several months.
I still disagree. There is
I still disagree. There is no strategic point in NOT adopting a primarily defensive strategy if you're up big in the closing minutes of any game, in any sport that i can think of -- i.e., if my team is up 28-7 with two minutes to go in a football game, there is scant reason to not run the ball and burn time off the clock, as opposed to throwing long passes downfield to try and win by a larger margin. The only reason to do so is for goofy statistical considerations such as the one you put forth, which are not really in the spirit of the game ((any game)).
The problem with the statistical ranking models ...
Is that they can't take any of those kinds of things into consideration.
Up a lot and start cycling in newbies and win by a slim margin? How can you use that score differential to really predict how you'd do against another team? And even more ... how can you take that into account on your model unless you know it is going on?
I'm an excellent driver.
Maybe being a ref means I have a different take on these things from most people, or maybe I'm just a robot, but I don't think such variables *should* be taken into consideration, even if it were possible to do so. Rather, I see all the decisions a team makes on the track as part of a bigger picture, and the score as the thumbnail image. If a highly ranked team takes a bout against a team with a lower ranking for granted, and if it gives more playing time to second-stringers and alternates only to lose or win by a slimmer margin than anticipated, that's a decision THEY made. If a team doesn't put their all into a game for whatever reason, that's also their decision. Calling off the jam while unopposed, putting an inconsistent or penalty-prone jammer on the line at the end of a nail-biter, committing an ejection-worthy offense in the heat of the moment, and so on...all are choices made by teams and their individual players, and all the "if onlys" in the world will not change that. And to me, using "if onlys" to somehow invalidate or excuse one team's performance against another is disingenuous and patronizing conjecture.
In this particular case, the criteria used to discern a ranking for three of the four leagues were two nail-biter bouts scheduled 3 months apart; one was a 2-point victory, and the other a 7-point loss. My point was merely that there are other, far more closely timed match-ups with more pronounced score margins that serve to make the end result debatable.
I understand that; i'm just
I understand that; i'm just saying that i don't find the difference between a 56 point win and a 75 point win to be significant in any meaningful way...what's a more convincing victory, 56-0 or 190-115?
On top of having a higher
On top of having a higher point spread, 190-115 sounds like a far better game to watch. :D
Indeed. However, the reason
Indeed. However, the reason why i ascribe significance to the results of head-to-head competition, even in games spaced months apart and decided by small point margins -- as opposed to games played on the same weekend with greater point margins -- is that all participants, by virtue of their very engaging in a sport with victories and losses, have implicitly agreed that winning and losing is important, relative to rankings. Everybody knows and agrees that WIN = good, LOSE = not as good, therefore trying to win and not lose is a UNIVERSALLY AGREED UPON GOAL. There is no such consensus on the value of a 75 point victory margin vs. a 56 point victory margin -- winning by 75 and not 56 is NOT a universally agreed upon goal -- and, as Loco pointed out, point spreads are perhaps not as indicative of performance as percentage of total points scored is anyway -- so i'm going to have to say that Boston > Madison > Charm City is a fundamentally sound statement until proven otherwise.
By your logic, if Gotham had
By your logic, if Gotham had won against Texas by a handful of points, as opposed to 61, they still would have moved up to second place in the WFTDA rankings, while Texas fell to fifth.
By your logic, there wouldn't currently be three places between Boston and Charm City in either the WFTDA rankings or FTS. After all, they've played mostly the same teams in the past year, with only two instances of different final outcomes, and by your logic, a win is a win is a win.
Productive Afternoon, Part 42
By your logic, if Gotham had won against Texas by a handful of points, as opposed to 61, they still would have moved up to second place in the WFTDA rankings, while Texas fell to fifth.
Nope, not true -- i didn't say that i didn't consider a 61 vs. "handful" victory margin statistically significant, i said that i didn't consider a 56 vs. 75 point victory margin significant. Although now that i think about it, what you said i said could indeed be logically inferred from my earlier statement, so i guess i did technically say that and you are right.
So, to clarify my position:
1. Head to head results are the most important
2. Point differentials are useful in determining the comparative quality of a win, but only to a certain point
3. At a certain point, point differentials are not useful in determining the comparative quality of a win
I'm the operator of my pocket calculator.
I'm not a statistician, and it's been years since I slept through Quantitative Reasoning as a psych major. But if a statistically significant difference can be defined as one that cannot be written off to chance or a fluke, then at least anecdotally, I'd set the point of significant difference between point differentials as one that was impossible (or nearly impossible) to achieve in one jam. A 19-point difference may not *quite* reach that mark, but it comes pretty close.
I have the "Pocket Calculator" 45 with the see-through sleeve
But a team with a 56 point lead might very well be having their jammer playing defense on the trailing team's jammer at that point! What do they care about scoring 19 extra points? They already have all the points they need, they just want to kill the clock! There's no point in pushing the lead out any further if the team thinks their interests are best served by purely playing defense, and if there's no point to it, why factor it into rankings?
Hey! You two!
Get a room.
Hey...
...at least we ain't talkin' about the refs any more...
You have fallen into my trap!
...at least we ain't talkin' about the refs any more...
Mission accomplished ;)
JFM
To quote the kid in the Connect Four commercial...
Pret-ty sneaky, sis!
I shudder to think about
I shudder to think about people who get hot and bothered in a good way at the mention of statistically significant difference. ;)
Hey!
Quantoids have feelings too, y'know.
Awww...poor quantoid.
Sorry. Didn't mean to hurt your feelings.
Actually, just after writing that, I hit the back button a couple times to see something that scared me even more.
our saying
No excuses. We win as a team, we lose as a team.
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
yup...
... couldn't agree more Holly.
Flat Track Stats & the blowout factor
On FTS, they basically equalize any win that's over 40pts. i.e. the win has the same weight if it's by 40 pts or 45 pts or 85 pts.
While I'm not sure if 40 is the right number, I agree with this analysis-- i.e. after a while, when you know you've got the win, do you need to keep jamming your superstar jammers or are you putting out a wider rotation, &c.
Also-- instead of pure point spreads, I prefer to look at the percentage of points scored in a game-- because that takes into account how defensive a game was as well across the board.
For those two bouts that y'all are arguing about Boston & Charm v. Cincy
Charm 158/ Cincy 83 -- Charm had 65.5% v Cincy 34.5%
Boston 131/ Cincy 71 -- Boston had 63.3% v. Cincy 36.7%
Charm still wound up on top on both, but I think this is more meaningful that just simple point margins, and communicates that these two games were comparably competitive moreso.
Charm City
Both teams are very good, but after playing each of them, I would give the nod to Charm City as the better team. They are both very good teams, but Charm City has Dolly and Joy who really make their team dangerous.
For Boston, Lois Carmen Dominator was my standout. What a pest. :-)
Frida Beater
Rocky Mountain Rollergirls
March 21st?
I really have to wait THAT long? There is no match up I would rather see than Charm City vs. Boston ;)
great can of worms JFM
You opened it on both ends and all the worms fell out! Last year's Nationals in ATX was my first "chance" to see Gotham and I missed the bout! I've heard great things and look forward to seeing them battle it out with teams from the West. Taxi "Who Me?" Scab said it plain, we'll see how things shake down at Nationals.
I still think Rat City and Texas are the best in the Nation. I get to see them skate more often than teams from the East so what the hell do I know? My gut tells me that Rose City belongs in Carolina or Duke's spot. I think Philly is occupying BAD's spot and Gotham is occupying Rat City's spot. So does this mean Gotham is below BAD? We shall see.
Two teams that will be absent from Nationals that I'd like to see in November are Boston and Rose City. BADG and Boston (best uniforms in derby) were bottom feeders at '06 Bumberbout and both have risen to compete well against the elite teams. Let's see what shakes down in lovely Portland, that's why they play right?
Unis
BADG and Boston (best uniforms in derby)
Boston's uniforms are dopey. Great team, though. Charm City's got the best travel team uniforms in derby, AND the best posters ((though possibly tied with Detroit in that regard)). Whatever team it is from Sin City that has the black shirts and the tiger-stripe skirts have the best uniforms overall, though. MEE-ow.
WCR Whites FTW
I agree that Detroit has some really good bout posters (and top notch design in general for all of their stuff), but I have to respectfully disagree about who has the best uniforms:
The Windy City Rollers All-Star white unis (complete with Chiflag pivot helmet covers) are a thing of beauty! They're the best!! :o)
uniforms
I agree that Detroit has some really good bout posters (and top notch design in general for all of their stuff), but I have to respectfully disagree about who has the best uniforms:
The Windy City Rollers All-Star white unis (complete with Chiflag pivot helmet covers) are a thing of beauty! They're the best!! :o)
I think Dirty Marty said it best when he commented that Charm City has won the flag competition. Did you check out our md flag helmets? Each was individually spray painted by my sig. other.
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
unis
Yep lurv the helmets, they are AWSOME! I did have to explain to somebody at ECE that the pattern on the Boston uniform was supposed to evoke (revwar styel) regimental jackets.
NO THEY ARE TRANSFORMERS
WTF ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?!?!?
jk.
Anna
Boston Massacre: The pantsless wonders of Massachusetts
GI Joe Was Better
Get a Cobra emblem on your jerseys, and then we'll talk about who's impressed.
The uni
of the Windy City all stars with the stars and stripes on the sides remind me of the old ABA unis of the NY Nets. Yeah they're cool.
The fit of the Windy City Unis
won the entire weekend - those jerseys were HOT! I actually drooled more over the Windy City jerseys than I did for my favorite Philly Liberty Belles, which is a feat, because Philly looks beautiful in those Unis - what a gorgeous bunch of women you all are! Roller Derby women in sports jerseys out-hots almost any women's sport I've ever seen, excepting maybe college volleyball - anytime anyone ever argues about how little clothing we wear, I tell them to go look up volleyball...no one makes sports jerseys look better than us, IMHO. And Charm will always have a special place in my heart for wearing the hell out of some Ketchup and Mustard! Yeah, I said it! I spend all my time trying to direct attention away from what we look like in the press, and I'm letting my hair down here. Ha. -xxxoooMercy Less
Question...
Did WCR put the names back on the back of their unis? When I was @ ECE they didn't. While that isn't a problem much of the time, WCR didn't have a page on the program, so it kinda was confusing.
The Original GGRDonald
WCR jerseys
I know the white uniforms don't have names on them, and pretty sure the black ones don't. Which, as it's been pointed out, is a bit annoying because they don't put skater numbers on their team page in the program.
- bjmacke (a.k.a. Apron)
It's not this diabolical scheme...
...to confuse our fans and opponents. The two things were done independently-- the uniform and the program page.
There's no room on the back of the jerseys for full names and 4" numbers... and due to the program-page deadline, we didn't have a chance to update the page with numbers.
WCR fans are happy to ID our All-Stars by numbers... and there are usually at least a few of us around...
But I've already seen a draft of our pages for the NWK program, and it's name and number, so it should be easier for y'all!
xo,
Loco Chanel
(Edited because Machiavelli has nothing to do with it... I just had that term in my head this week...)
We don't need no stinking badges...
...to confuse our fans and opponents. The two things were done independently-- the uniform and the program page.
Heck, I thought it was a cool idea that made WCR harder to scout by teams who don't know them.
Besides, Quad loves WCR and doesn't need no stinking jersey names to identify them:
The brain out front directing traffic, screwing up your scheme, and keeping the WCR pack straight is Nina.
The one in back who just knocked you straight on your bum is Megan.
The one who just hurdled your down blocker mid-pack then immediately re-engaged and stalled your jammer is Malice.
The blurry one who keeps lapping you and scoring 15-0 jams over and over is Varla.
See. Easy.
awesome
I couldn't have said it better myself ;o)
names on uniforms
I do get the aesthetic decision, which the Texecutioners currently have in common with Windy City, but I have to confess that it does make life a little more difficult for my compatriots and I when we're boutcasting. Even with a numbers > names list to refer to, that's just us spending another eight seconds looking down to get the name to type the action. We'd rather be looking up so we can see the *next* key move and type about it.
Not a criticism, just an observation.
There's a "Team" Element as Well
Whether intentional or not. Numbers only removes a most direct identifier, and I'm sure helps psychologically in terms of not only scouting (or obstructing it), but team cohesion. Nobody's the "star."
The Yankees do the same thing.
Meanwhile, my beloved (or whatever) Bengals haven't won a game this season, and Chad Johnson seems more focused on getting his uniform to read "OCHO CINCO" than with catching the damned ball.
For what it's worth.
Thanks for the comparison!
[quote=Professor Murder]The Yankees do the same thing.quote]
Thanks for pointing out Texas=NY Yankees
The Original NY Mets Fan
!ERIPME LIVE EHT
oh god!
Sin City has absolutely the worst uniforms in the history of derby. (no offense Fabulous, I know it's not your fault)
I think Charm City does have great uniforms, but wait to you see our sparkly shorts in person. BLING! BLING!
Taxi Scab
B.ay A.rea D.erby Girls All-Stars
They showed up REAL NICE
... on the livecast here ...
And they're gone...
along with the old travel team name, which IMO would've been a great home team name/theme/uniform, but has nothing to do with the city.
One of these years WFTDA will get around to noticing our league and travel team names have changed and fix this stuff on their web site. I'm not holding my breath. It's been almost a year.
-Barely even speaking for myself...
*~[
Grand Poobah
Sin City Stat Pack
Fabulous Sin City Rollergirls
I beg to differ. The
I beg to differ. The Neanderdolls' unis can NOT be improved on. Theyyyy're GRRRRRRREAT!!! ((with apologies to Thurl Ravenscroft))
Transformer heads
Aside from the rampant pantslessness of the Boston skaters, I love that their uniform tops can either be military style *or* Transformer heads.
I actually thought they
I actually thought they *were* Transformer heads when I first saw them.
when i say more
you say ruffles
Anna
Boston Massacre: The pantsless wonders of Massachusetts
honestly
I did not intend to derail this interesting thread with tales of textiles! :)
Since we're talking about such important stuff...
As per our uniforms...we're certainly the easiest to follow on a web feed.
And if you think our outfits are good, check us out at the afterparty. I dare anyone to match Pia Mess's shiny gold unitard. Oh, and don't get me started on the dance-offs...
mindiannapolis500
derby slave
Bay Area Derby Girls
Please for the love of god
Please for the love of god tell me that someone has a picture of Pia Mess in her shiny gold unitard.
not officially...
just my opinion. :) I also happen to LOVE the City of Boston so call me Mr. Dopey.
I do think that Windy City's
I do think that Windy City's six-pointed stars on the jammer helmet panty are a nice touch...the idea is good for Windy's white unis but i think the execution leaves a little to be desired. I don't like their black unis at all.
Boston's unis remind me of high school, and the one or two guys who went to prom dressed in those black t-shirts with the white printing on the front that was supposed to make the t-shirt look like it was a tuxedo top, and sat around grinning all night as if by wearing such a shirt they were somehow doing something clever, endearing, rebellious and interesting. Yeah. They're THAT guy. ((OK, i exaggerate somewhat...but not completely))
...and Minnesota's uniforms
...and Minnesota's uniforms should come in quite handy in case the team ever needs to camouflage themselves in a situation where their legs are in foliage and their torsos are in the Astor Park wading pool.
Cammy-licious?
...and Minnesota's uniforms should come in quite handy in case the team ever needs to camouflage themselves in a situation where their legs are in foliage and their torsos are in the Astor Park wading pool.
I think the cammo theme of Minny's unis is cool.
What I don't think works is the blueish lettering over the cammou print. Perhaps white lettering outlined with day-glo hunter orange would have worked better, Or maybe hunter orange lettering outlined in black would make their unis look more cohesive.
Two colors never to use in derby uniforms
Any uniform that looks like an army uniform sucks. Which has nothing to do with the military, it's just that the colors are totally unappealing. I really hope I never have to see another olive-green, grey or camouflage uniform again. They are all singularly unappealing to the eye. And horribly overplayed. Bleh.
-Barely even speaking for myself...
*~[
Grand Poobah
Sin City Stat Pack
Fabulous Sin City Rollergirls
What is WRONG with you???
I don't like their black unis at all.
They look like a team full of Bond Girls in those black unis!
The black unis don't look
The black unis don't look flag-ish enough! I *really* hated when they had the teal and the black, that teal clashed with the powder blue stripes of the ((ever-present)) Chicago flag, it was all icky.
shhhh...don't tell anyone...
I'm with you about the teal not matching! would have been better to have the same red and light blue on the black unis...but you didn't hear it here. ;)
Black leaves me blue
...I don't like their black unis at all.
I agree that the black WCR All-Star unis are not as visually unique as they could be. Perhaps its' the fact that a silver & black color combo is a bit overplayed in the world of sports unis.
Personally I think they could use more of the "WCR Blue" incorporated into their black unis. Perhaps a simple change to the original Chicago Flag red star/blue stripes on the black unis (as opposed to the stars & stripes as silver) is all the black unis need.
It would be awesome if
It would be awesome if someone actually made a uniform out of those shirts.
Naptowns Uni's
Are the coolest ever. NOBODY has uni's that look like theirs. Thanks Jerry Lee's Western Wear! And yes I'm totally unbiased *snicker*
Everything Falls Apart
Are the coolest ever. NOBODY has uni's that look like theirs
I dunno, i kinda thought Providence did!
I like Fort Wayne's better, because they use the Land Speed Record font for their numerals, based off of the Husker Du logo.
Look- I'm all about lovin'
Look- I'm all about lovin' on Providence and all but...no. Every skater on Naptown has her own custom-logo'd shirt. Ya gotta love Psychedelic Sandy's lava lamp shirt-classic!
Red and black is the new black!
Notably missing: Arch Rival Roller Girls
Arch Rival beat both Cincinnati and Grand Raggidy on the way to winning the Fall Brawl just a few weeks ago. They've got a pretty strong case for ranking in the teens based on that.
Abso-freakin'-lutely.
Abso-freakin'-lutely.
Kudos to Arch, but they
Kudos to Arch, but they didn't beat Cincinnati in a full-length bout; it was only a 20 min period.
Cincinnati Rollergirls
Anyone.Anytime.Anywhere.
yes, its true
Only WFTDA Sanctioned bouts count for the rankings.
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
cinci vs. arrg
Kudos to Arch, but they didn't beat Cincinnati in a full-length bout; it was only a 20 min period.
Cincinnati Rollergirls
Anyone.Anytime.Anywhere.
You are correct. But oh boy I cannot wait to see it when we do have a full bout against each other. Hopefully next season or next year at regionals. I really wish ARRG could have been at regionals this year, because I feel like our travel team could have gone far. Be on the lookout for ARRG!
BTW I think Windy City needs to be higher in your ranking. I am confident they will defeat Rat City at Nationals. (but I love Rat City, too!!!)
Thank you very much, Miss Lippy.
ARRG
Ah. Now HERE'S where point
Ah. Now HERE'S where point differentials are actually handy: Arch Rival beat Grand Raggidy by 15, but Cincinnati beat Grand Raggidy by 44. Arch Rival did beat Cincinnati, but, as noted, that was a 20 minute game. I would actually say that the 44 vs. 15 point thing *is* significant in this case, so i'd probably say that the teams should be ranked Cincinnati - Arch Rival - Grand Raggidy, in that order, maybe, although Arch Rival - Cincinnati - Grand Raggidy would be acceptable as well. Either way, they should be ahead of Grand Raggidy.
no
Ah. Now HERE'S where point differentials are actually handy: Arch Rival beat Grand Raggidy by 15, but Cincinnati beat Grand Raggidy by 44. Arch Rival did beat Cincinnati, but, as noted, that was a 20 minute game. I would actually say that the 44 vs. 15 point thing *is* significant in this case, so i'd probably say that the teams should be ranked Cincinnati - Arch Rival - Grand Raggidy, in that order, maybe, although Arch Rival - Cincinnati - Grand Raggidy would be acceptable as well. Either way, they should be ahead of Grand Raggidy.
ONLY WFTDA sanctioned bouts occuring in the quarter of the ranking can count toward rankings.
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
ARRG/ GRRG
The final bout of the Fall Brawl (ARRG-GRRG, ARRG winning by 15) was a full-length, WFTDA-sanctioned bout.
You can also consider bouts that occurred in previous quarters when doing rankings. Cincinnati v. Grand Rapids was at ECE and also a fully sanctioned bout.
what counts?
ONLY WFTDA sanctioned bouts occuring in the quarter of the ranking can count toward rankings.
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
That's all well and good in principle, but the current ranking process is a subjective ballot conducted by thinking people, many of whom I doubt will successfully "wall off" what they know of non-sanctioned bout results. The point of rankings is, who do you think would win if two teams played, everything else being equal?
WFTDA injects human judgment into the rankings process because no one has come up with a way to generate satisfying results based only on feeding sanctioned bout scores into an algorithm. I doubt that will change any time soon, for all kinds of good reasons that have been discussed elsewhere.
So. If Cincinnati and Arch Rival go into a bout tomorrow, who do you think will win? I hope that WFTDA rankings voters will base their rankings, ultimately, on the answer to that question, no matter what data they consider in order to get there.
Tool for Ranking After Parties?
So how do we quantify who really does win the after party?
Like so...
So how do we quantify who really does win the after party?
but you've got to WANT IT!
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3039/2772854697_537b775dfb.jpg
I believe i am aware of such
I believe i am aware of such a tool.
One team shall rise above
One team shall rise above them all in the afterparty rankings...Hammer City.
nope.
Ain't no afterparty like a Chicago Outfit afterparty.
Challenge.
Though Hammer City is fun to party with.
Predicting Afterparty Winners
So how do we quantify who really does win the after party?
The equation is log(PARTY) = β0j + β1j(SHOTSij) + β2j(CANADIANij)
Where the dependent value is a "who wins the afterparty" value
β0j is the slope intercept value
β1j(SHOTSij) represents the increase in the likelihood of winning said afterparty for every standard deviation change in the number of shots consumed, and
β2j(CANADIANij) represents the odds ratio change in the likelihood of winning the afterparty if one is Canadian as opposed to a US citizen.
But let's not forget that the intercept is susceptible to predicted variation as well:
β0j =θ00 + θ01(MOUSTACHEj) + u0j
Where, we see the intercept for the first model, but now it's a dependent value.
θ00 is a new slope intercept,
θ01(MOUSTACHEj) represents the change in the slope change for each subsequent shot for those who have moustaches drawn on in sharpie, and
u0j represents random error, which, given a derby afterparty, is where you'll find the bulk of the effect.
So, you see, it's pretty simple. Not yet complex enough to account for the effect of wearing underwear on the outside of your pants, but science just isn't there yet. But it's a logistic equation, so it does account for the fact that an increase in shots can cause a decrease in the likelihood of winning the afterparty, once a certain threshold has been crossed.
Alright, that's enough nerddom. Yow.
other factors warranting consideration
I lack the mathematical acumen to make the necessary formula modifications, but I'd suggest the following additional factors:
- Home team effect (mild disadvatage for single bouts, growing to a gigantic advantage for multi-day tournaments)
- Bout winner advantage
- Modification to the Canadian advantage for French-Canadians
- Disadvantage for sore losers of a bout
Comments on Hurt Reynold's Peer Review
I lack the mathematical acumen to make the necessary formula modifications, but I'd suggest the following additional factors:
- Home team effect (mild disadvatage for single bouts, growing to a gigantic advantage for multi-day tournaments)
Hmm. I tend to be much more afterparty prone when I travel as opposed to when I'm at home. But I'll concede this point.
- Bout winner advantage
Yep.
- Modification to the Canadian advantage for French-Canadians
Oui. I have yet to see the legendary partying styles of those residents of "America's Hat, Quebecois Edition" but they are, quite clearly, the stuff of legend.
- Disadvantage for sore losers of a bout
Hmm. At this point, I think you're changing the dynamic of what it means to "win" the afterparty. That's a whole 'nother dependent variable, Hurt.
There may also be a good deal of regional effects; I was only presented with "moonshine/rocket fuel" in Carolina, only experienced altitude in Denver, and only experienced cheap, cheap, cheap drinks in Milwaukee. So there's some contextual variation.
for the mathematically impaired
How the hell does one even type that Russian-looking "B" thingie? Morty is impressed with Prof. Murder and therefore so am I. I'll tell you this much, I'm winning the after party. Here's how, in simple math:
(insert cyrillic B thingie here)->* Blatant disregard for self-image + copious amounts of drinkie-stuff + awesome derby people from all corners + encouraging others to win = Winning & Ruling.
Amen.
Wow
So how do we quantify who really does win the after party?
The equation is log(PARTY) = β0j + β1j(SHOTSij) + β2j(CANADIANij)
Where the dependent value is a "who wins the afterparty" value
β0j is the slope intercept value
β1j(SHOTSij) represents the increase in the likelihood of winning said afterparty for every standard deviation change in the number of shots consumed, and
β2j(CANADIANij) represents the odds ratio change in the likelihood of winning the afterparty if one is Canadian as opposed to a US citizen.
But let's not forget that the intercept is susceptible to predicted variation as well:
β0j =θ00 + θ01(MOUSTACHEj) + u0j
Where, we see the intercept for the first model, but now it's a dependent value.
θ00 is a new slope intercept,
θ01(MOUSTACHEj) represents the change in the slope change for each subsequent shot for those who have moustaches drawn on in sharpie, and
u0j represents random error, which, given a derby afterparty, is where you'll find the bulk of the effect.
So, you see, it's pretty simple. Not yet complex enough to account for the effect of wearing underwear on the outside of your pants, but science just isn't there yet. But it's a logistic equation, so it does account for the fact that an increase in shots can cause a decrease in the likelihood of winning the afterparty, once a certain threshold has been crossed.
Alright, that's enough nerddom. Yow.
That is quite possibly my favorite comment on this site, EVER.
Mathemortician
B.ay A.rea D.erby Girls
Gotham Shmotham
Unless Gotham has seriously stepped up their game since last year, I don't see them even making the finals. A sluggish KCRW beat them last year in Austin and Gotham's win in NY against Texas was against a tired team who was missing key players and who didn't play anywhere close to their potential. Texas looked like they were well on their way to being "back on track" in Houston and will be a formitable opponent in Portland. Rat City looked really good as well, even though they lost to the Texas girls in a rough and tumble bout.
The sun may rise in the east but this year, you'll have to look west again to find where the 2008 WFTDA championship trophy will set.
Lead photographer for the reigning WFTDA national champions!
Masters of the universe...unite!
Sluggish?
As I recall from last years national tournament, particularly the KC/Gotham bout, KCRW looked like they were firing on all cylinders in their skating. I'll give you this--I don't believe Gotham outside of that bout has faced teams with the high skill/speed depth of Rat City or a well rested TX team. With all due respect to the better east coast teams, I don't believe that Philly nor Windy City have the speed that the elite West Coast teams have.
We'll just have to see if Gotham has retooled their approach and strategy for the challenges coming up.
with all due respect...
how do you arrive at the conclusion that "Philly nor Windy City have the speed that the elite West Coast teams have"...?
having discussed such with jam refs who officiated both tournaments, the overwhelming sentiment was actually the opposite, or that speed was fairly similar.
besides, a faster game is awesome...but a team that has speed control is likely better poised to take a win.
Yep, speed control
Helps you win--and keeping the penalty box time down to a minimum-e.g., KCRW in last years national tourney.
At least from what I saw on the boutcasts from the eastern regionals--Philly and Windy City have some very good jammers, but do they compare to the level of the troika of Miss Fortune, Femme Fatale, and Blonde an Bitchin of Rat City? I'm not quite sure that they are at that level, which is not to say that their teams are inferior or that their speed as teams overall is inferior, but can the speed control of those teams defensively keep those skaters down--this includes Gotham too if they actually meet? Ya gotta play the bouts and we'll know for sure in November.
jammers
Have you seen Gotham play? ahem..Bonnie Thunders, Suzy Hotrod
...just sayin.
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
For realz, speed shouldn't be in question
My jaw was on the floor watching Bonnie Thunders, Suzy Hotrod, and Cheapskate lap the pack in record speed. Those women can close a gap like I've never seen before. That and their constant fake-outery and footwork is ridiculous! They don't just stand there and get booty blocked, there is constant movement. They NEVER give up and they never hesitate. Its like watching a football drills on skates. I love, love, love Gotham.
Anna
Boston Massacre: The pantsless wonders of Massachusetts
Don't forget Cheap$kate!
...and of course the blocking stylings of BEYONSLAY!
The Original Troll
telling it like it is
pack speed
If you think they lack pack speed, you obviously have not seen much of Windy City.
Who wasn't there at ECE? Why were they tired? Are you seriously suggesting that they lack team discipline or experience in skating multi-bout events? They lost because they scored fewer points than the other team.
Get this, I'm from the West, and I am a TXRG fan. They got crushed by Gotham Girls at ECE. That's really all that there is to say. To their credit, I haven't been hearing TXRG skaters making excuses for their performance in that bout. I guess that's a job for us male fans...
Regional presumptions about roller derby are in my view rather stupid. Teams from higher altitudes tend to have better stamina, and some leagues in warmer climates have it easier/cheaper getting skating practice. That's really about it. Additionally, it appears that there's a bit more stratification of the travel team strength in East than the West.
If we were to place such a high import some bouts that happened last year and KCRW is still the best team out there, that would suggest that nobody in the West (except Duke City?) should have a prayer against Windy City, right?
I try REALLY HARD not to become one of those sports fans I always rolled my eyes at during the Super Bowl party while I was getting bored watching football players touch each others butts and waiting for that Macintosh 1984 commercial to come on.
-Barely even speaking for myself...
*~[
Grand Poobah
Sin City Stat Pack
Fabulous Sin City Rollergirls
Realistic Guy
I don't know what bout you watched but as someone who has seen all but 2 games KCRW has played in the last 3 seasons, KCRW didn't play very well in their game against Gotham at Nationals...and still beat them in the first round. I'm just sayin'...
Lead photographer for the reining WFTDA national champions!
Masters of the universe...unite!
Who
Who was Texas missing against Gotham? They fielded pretty much the exact same roster except that Friction wasn't placed on the Texecutioners yet and Bullet Tooth Tracy was still a Duke City skater. Gotham's victory over Texas was perfectly executed. There are no reasons or excuses for the loss outside of Gotham being a force of destruction. Seriously, how is Texas supposed to be a "tired team" on the first day of the tournament? Gotham just plain ol' whipped their asses that day; it happens. It's good for the sport to have other teams stepping up and a good ass-kicking can wake a team up faster than anything else can.
its not about who was tired or who was missing
Who is on your charter is your team and who you bring to a game represents your team. You win and lose as a team, not because you're tired or you're star player is missing. As the say, you're only as strong as your weakest player. If I see that Gotham beat Texas in a sanctioned game, thats what happened. Not "Gotham beat a tired Texas" or "Gotham beat Texas who was missing key players". I don't ask about, or care, who was missing from the roster because it doesn't matter.
Those 20 women are your team, even if 6 of them never get to play. So if your six a-string players can't go and the 6 c-string alternates step in, thats what you're bringing to the table and what you're showing to the rest of the derby community. No one should care about who was missing b/c you put all 20 of them on your charter for a reason.
Anna
Boston Massacre: The pantsless wonders of Massachusetts
I hear ya
I don't like anyone trying to diminish what Gotham did to Texas, which is what I'm trying to convey to TX fan above. Gotham smoked Texas fair and square. I'm just willing to go down to that level of detail to debate his comments. Gotham can hang with Rat and Texas most assuredly.
Gotta Make It Thru Round 1
I don't like anyone trying to diminish what Gotham did to Texas, which is what I'm trying to convey to TX fan above. Gotham smoked Texas fair and square. I'm just willing to go down to that level of detail to debate his comments. Gotham can hang with Rat and Texas most assuredly.
Yes, Gotham beat Texas. Will they do it in the big tourney? I seriously doubt it. In fact, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Gotham goes down in the first round...again. For several key reasons, Gotham's all-star team is not at the same level as last year according to good sources at Eastern. The top 4 teams in the West were consistantly tested in tournament play while Gotham wasn't. Contrary to what some have implied, I'm not dissing the Gotham girls, I'm sure they're nice and all but I haven't blindly bought into the Gotham hype either.
Lead photographer for the reining WFTDA national champions!
Masters of the universe...unite!
Goin' down
...I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Gotham goes down in the first round...again.
That certainly wouldn't hurt my feelings. Another "giant-killing" would do us a world o' good.
You keep chanting that mantra, Phil.
Duke City Derby
no venue, no fans, no season, no problem
kick some ass...go Go GO!
...I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Gotham goes down in the first round...again.
That certainly wouldn't hurt my feelings. Another "giant-killing" would do us a world o' good.
You keep chanting that mantra, Phil.
Duke City Derby
no venue, no fans, no season, no problem
I hope Duke City does well and kicks some NY ass. Your league has overcome a lot this year and your determination has carried you far. You all had a great Western tourney and I hope you build on that going into Nationals and beyond. There are lots of new Duke City fans here in KC who will be cheering you on.
Lead photographer for the reining WFTDA national champions!
Masters of the universe...unite!
not making sense
i don't understand where all your vitriol toward gotham is coming from, and i certainly don't understand your logic. gotham has won every interleague bout they've played since nationals last year, including some against highly ranked teams from the west, and is certainly battle tested. by saying that coming out of the eastern regionals on top, including bouts against two teams that will be at nationals, isn't battle tested you're dissing and dismissing the other top east teams as well.
maybe you can start your own ranking site a la flat track stats, but add an "excuses" factor to the formula.
Filthy McNasty
New York Shock Exchange
excuses!
i don't understand where all your vitriol toward gotham is coming from, and i certainly don't understand your logic. gotham has won every interleague bout they've played since nationals last year, including some against highly ranked teams from the west, and is certainly battle tested. by saying that coming out of the eastern regionals on top, including bouts against two teams that will be at nationals, isn't battle tested you're dissing and dismissing the other top east teams as well.
maybe you can start your own ranking site a la flat track stats, but add an "excuses" factor to the formula.
Filthy McNasty
New York Shock Exchange
HAHAHA!!! excuses factor, sorry couldn't help the laughing, that's hilarious.
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
shiny hopeful faces
i don't understand where all your vitriol toward gotham is coming from, and i certainly don't understand your logic. gotham has won every interleague bout they've played since nationals last year, including some against highly ranked teams from the west, and is certainly battle tested. by saying that coming out of the eastern regionals on top, including bouts against two teams that will be at nationals, isn't battle tested you're dissing and dismissing the other top east teams as well.
maybe you can start your own ranking site a la flat track stats, but add an "excuses" factor to the formula.
Filthy McNasty
New York Shock Exchange
Wow...vitriol? Seriously? I have nothing against Gotham personally however, I'm not a fan of any of the overhyped teams from NY. I don't claim to be an expert in derby rankings although, the Texas team that will be at Nationals is a different playing team than what Gotham played. My inside sources tell me that Gotham is not at the same level they were last year. I don't see Gotham getting past BADD, Rat City or TXRG and probably Duke City. We're all fans here and my opinion happens to differ than all the shiny hopeful faces out east. Good luck to ya but bring your notepad and pay attention because the East is going to get schooled in Portland.
Lead photographer for the reining WFTDA national champions!
Masters of the universe...unite!
different, better
i don't understand where all your vitriol toward gotham is coming from, and i certainly don't understand your logic. gotham has won every interleague bout they've played since nationals last year, including some against highly ranked teams from the west, and is certainly battle tested. by saying that coming out of the eastern regionals on top, including bouts against two teams that will be at nationals, isn't battle tested you're dissing and dismissing the other top east teams as well.
maybe you can start your own ranking site a la flat track stats, but add an "excuses" factor to the formula.
Filthy McNasty
New York Shock Exchange
Wow...vitriol? Seriously? I have nothing against Gotham personally however, I'm not a fan of any of the overhyped teams from NY. I don't claim to be an expert in derby rankings although, the Texas team that will be at Nationals is a different playing team than what Gotham played. My inside sources tell me that Gotham is not at the same level they were last year. I don't see Gotham getting past BADD, Rat City or TXRG and probably Duke City. We're all fans here and my opinion happens to differ than all the shiny hopeful faces out east. Good luck to ya but bring your notepad and pay attention because the East is going to get schooled in Portland.
Lead photographer for the reining WFTDA national champions!
Masters of the universe...unite!
As a fan, not as an expert, the Gotham team that I've seen at ECE and Madison this past year is a lot better than the Gotham that I saw play at regionals in Ohio last year, I wasn't at nationals so not sure about that.
But I like all teams, go everyone!
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
Double agent?
I'm starting to think you're secretly a huge Gotham fan, trying to give them locker-room material :)
JFM
the truth is out there...
I'm starting to think you're secretly a huge Gotham fan, trying to give them locker-room material :)
JFM
sshhhhhh!!!
Lead photographer for the reining WFTDA national champions!
Masters of the universe...unite!
Clearly bulletin board material
...I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Gotham goes down in the first round...again.
That certainly wouldn't hurt my feelings. Another "giant-killing" would do us a world o' good.
You keep chanting that mantra, Phil.
And WHEN Gotham beats Duke City, just consider yourselves honored to get beat by the best.
The Original GGRDonald
if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.
Yeah but
I don't like anyone trying to diminish what Gotham did to Texas, which is what I'm trying to convey to TX fan above. Gotham smoked Texas fair and square. I'm just willing to go down to that level of detail to debate his comments. Gotham can hang with Rat and Texas most assuredly.
Yes, Gotham beat Texas. Will they do it in the big tourney? I seriously doubt it. In fact, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Gotham goes down in the first round...again. For several key reasons, Gotham's all-star team is not at the same level as last year according to good sources at Eastern. The top 4 teams in the West were consistantly tested in tournament play while Gotham wasn't. Contrary to what some have implied, I'm not dissing the Gotham girls, I'm sure they're nice and all but I haven't blindly bought into the Gotham hype either.
Lead photographer for the reining WFTDA national champions!
Masters of the universe...unite!
Having been on the receiving end of one of Gotham's ass kickings (the second day of ECE), they are scary good. It says a lot for the other Eastern teams (like Philly) that they are able to step up and play Gotham tough now. But that doesn't make Gotham weak because the East is so vastly improved. I think that makes the East extremely competitive with the West, which will make for a much better nationals tournament overall. The beating Gotham put on Texas was no fluke; that bout was over by halftime. I interpret that as the East is on equal terms at worst.
I think they will miss Beatrix Slaughter quite a bit, but Gotham is going to be a beast. I sure as hell wouldn't want to play them this time around. They are a much better team than the one I saw lose to KC last season. Gotham isn't hype, my friend. They are for real. And in two weeks, we'll just see if they are or not.
the pot...it's best stirred with realism
I don't like anyone trying to diminish what Gotham did to Texas, which is what I'm trying to convey to TX fan above. Gotham smoked Texas fair and square. I'm just willing to go down to that level of detail to debate his comments. Gotham can hang with Rat and Texas most assuredly.
Yes, Gotham beat Texas. Will they do it in the big tourney? I seriously doubt it. In fact, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Gotham goes down in the first round...again. For several key reasons, Gotham's all-star team is not at the same level as last year according to good sources at Eastern. The top 4 teams in the West were consistantly tested in tournament play while Gotham wasn't. Contrary to what some have implied, I'm not dissing the Gotham girls, I'm sure they're nice and all but I haven't blindly bought into the Gotham hype either.
Lead photographer for the reining WFTDA national champions!
Masters of the universe...unite!
Having been on the receiving end of one of Gotham's ass kickings (the second day of ECE), they are scary good. It says a lot for the other Eastern teams (like Philly) that they are able to step up and play Gotham tough now. But that doesn't make Gotham weak because the East is so vastly improved. I think that makes the East extremely competitive with the West, which will make for a much better nationals tournament overall. The beating Gotham put on Texas was no fluke; that bout was over by halftime. I interpret that as the East is on equal terms at worst.
I think they will miss Beatrix Slaughter quite a bit, but Gotham is going to be a beast. I sure as hell wouldn't want to play them this time around. They are a much better team than the one I saw lose to KC last season. Gotham isn't hype, my friend. They are for real. And in two weeks, we'll just see if they are or not.
Yep, you're right, we'll see and after Nationals, let's have this discussion again. Teams play in cycles...sometimes up, sometimes down. KCRW lost to Carolina, then beat TXRG only to lay a goose egg in Chicago. Then they lost to Duke City in Houston. Congrats to DC! TXRG had some rough times this season only to show up in a big way in Houston. After losing big to Rose City a month before regionals, Rat City showed up in Houston and will be a formitable team in Portland. I'm not a hater nor am I vitriolic but I think a very real possibility is that no Eastern league will make it past the first round because the Western teams are that good...but like I said, let's have this discussion after Portland. ;)
Lead photographer for the reining WFTDA national champions!
Masters of the universe...unite!
Too much Snot Realism in the eyes
Maybe KCRW wasn't at their best in their bout against Gotham in the Nationals, but to my eyes, they looked better than they did the two previous times I saw them--The first Dust Devil and Bumberbout in 2006. Maybe they looked so good because a lot of my attention was on Snot Rocket who looked like she scored damn near half the points for KCRW in that Gotham bout.
That being said, Gotham may not seem that strong to you, but they look like they'll have an easier time getting to the finals than Texas or Rat City. If Gotham can deal with a smaller yet fast and game line up in Duke City and if my predictions hold up, challenge and beat a bigger, physical, yet good skating BAD Girls team on day 2, they're in. On the other hand, the way the brackets look, Texas may end up having to fight "Vietnam" all over again with Rat City on day 2 of the tournament to get there. If Gotham gets upset before the finals, I believe it would be the BAD Girls who do them in.
But until the realism pot stirs on November 14, it kinda feels like comparing apples and oranges since some of these teams haven't faced each other.
i mean really...how many times?
Maybe KCRW wasn't at their best in their bout against Gotham in the Nationals, but to my eyes, they looked better than they did the two previous times I saw them--The first Dust Devil and Bumberbout in 2006. Maybe they looked so good because a lot of my attention was on Snot Rocket who looked like she scored damn near half the points for KCRW in that Gotham bout.
That being said, Gotham may not seem that strong to you, but they look like they'll have an easier time getting to the finals than Texas or Rat City. If Gotham can deal with a smaller yet fast and game line up in Duke City and if my predictions hold up, challenge and beat a bigger, physical, yet good skating BAD Girls team on day 2, they're in. On the other hand, the way the brackets look, Texas may end up having to fight "Vietnam" all over again with Rat City on day 2 of the tournament to get there. If Gotham gets upset before the finals, I believe it would be the BAD Girls who do them in.
But until the realism pot stirs on November 14, it kinda feels like comparing apples and oranges since some of these teams haven't faced each other.
The KCRW team who showed up to Nationals last year was a different team, maybe not with completely different players but with different training, an additional coach and a completely different attitude from the previous year. They confidently (and secretly!) called winning Nationals months before showing up to Austin. I've heard from different people say that it was a fluke but it was no fluke at all. They peaked at the right time and beat the #1 team from the East, then Carolina, then Rat City.
Granted, Snotty is an awesome player (and an even better person), but if you've just focused on just her, you've missed a lot of what made KCRW the championship team they were in 07. Sadly, she's retired and will be missed in many ways.
Yet another meeting between TXRG and Rat City is a different issue and in my humble opinion is a bracketing problem. How many times do we need to see them play in any bout other than the finals at this point? Either team would most likely destroy Gotham and it's too bad that the 2 best teams in the country have to meet in anything other than the championship game.
Whether Gotham will get by Duke City is to be seen but if so, they'll have to face an aggessive BADD team who will be more than happy to shut down an overhyped Eastern team. All I've heard this year is about how good Gotham is and I'm looking forward to the final outcome to see if they really are THAT good or whether it's all NY hype.
I suspect the latter.
Hugs!
Lead photographer for the STILL reining (until Nov. 16 at approx. 5:30 PST) WFTDA national champions!
www.phil-peterson.com
C'mon now
Yet another meeting between TXRG and Rat City is a different issue and in my humble opinion is a bracketing problem. How many times do we need to see them play in any bout other than the finals at this point? Either team would most likely destroy Gotham and it's too bad that the 2 best teams in the country have to meet in anything other than the championship game.
1. Bracketing problem: huh? The only reason that Texas and Rat City kept meeting in the semifinals was because they've never been ranked #1 and #2 (which would have put them on opposite sides of the bracket.) The reason they weren't #1 and #2 was because they lost to other teams. This does not support an argument for them being the undisputed 2 best teams in the country.
Anyway, next year Texas and Rat City will be in different regions and will not meet in their regional tourmanents, so relax, our long national nightmare is almost over.
2. Sorry, but with their last meeting going 125-65 for Gotham, it's completely illogical to say that Texas would "likely destroy" Gotham in a rematch. That's just blatant regionalism. I'll agree that the Texas I saw in Houston was much improved from the Texas I saw in Philly @ ECE and could very well beat Gotham in a rematch. However, given the result of the first match, it's Texas that has to prove themselves, not Gotham.
All that being said, as an Albuquerque expatriate, I'm personally pulling for Duke City to make this whole conversation moot :)
JFM
I guess it bears restating...
Considering that LOTS of people seem to have missed the memo...
Texas v. Rat City in the semis is NOT, in fact, a WFTDA tournament requirement. The tournament results will still be considered fully valid without this particular match-up happening. I know of at least one team (most likely two, of course), as well as a notoriously passionate fan club*, that would be perfectly happy without this re-match happening once again.
That is all. Carry on.
xo,
Loco
*Codename: Drinkin' Lincolns**?
**That's for Nina. :)
dogpile!
Yet another meeting between TXRG and Rat City is a different issue and in my humble opinion is a bracketing problem. How many times do we need to see them play in any bout other than the finals at this point? Either team would most likely destroy Gotham and it's too bad that the 2 best teams in the country have to meet in anything other than the championship game.
1. Bracketing problem: huh? The only reason that Texas and Rat City kept meeting in the semifinals was because they've never been ranked #1 and #2 (which would have put them on opposite sides of the bracket.) The reason they weren't #1 and #2 was because they lost to other teams. This does not support an argument for them being the undisputed 2 best teams in the country.
Anyway, next year Texas and Rat City will be in different regions and will not meet in their regional tourmanents, so relax, our long national nightmare is almost over.
2. Sorry, but with their last meeting going 125-65 for Gotham, it's completely illogical to say that Texas would "likely destroy" Gotham in a rematch. That's just blatant regionalism. I'll agree that the Texas I saw in Houston was much improved from the Texas I saw in Philly @ ECE and could very well beat Gotham in a rematch. However, given the result of the first match, it's Texas that has to prove themselves, not Gotham.
All that being said, as an Albuquerque expatriate, I'm personally pulling for Duke City to make this whole conversation moot :)
JFM
1. Like DNN, I don't apologize for my opinions...period. The things that I've written in this thread are my own observations and what I believe to be true.
Second, breaking up the leagues into 4 regions will help with TXRG and RC always playing each other in the semis which will be good for both leagues. Proving that, the scores of the 1/2 bout and the 3/4 bout in Houston were blowouts with Texas and Rat City easily overpowering their opponents.
III. "Blatant regionalism"? Notsomuch. I do favor the West however, I'd love to see Windy City do well at Nationals but I don't see them making it past the first wave of bouts. Like you, I'm rooting for Duke City to do well and given their challenges this year, they've had a remarkable season. As I posted before, there are lots of people here in KC who will be rooting for them and I'd love to see a huge Kamakazi Kim smile after defeating Gotham.
D. Texas was a different team than the one who lost to KCRW and the one who played Gotham, according to my good sources. I'd put money or beer on whoever wins the Texas/Rat City game to be our 2008 WFTDA champions.
@ Cynical Guy - aahhh, you're a wise man to watch other things than the jammer. Snot Rocket is a derby superstar but she was able to work her magic because of the girls you mentioned. Last year's All Star team had remarkable cohesion and trust of each other. While they lost to DC in Houston, I'm so proud of them to finish strong after a devistating defeat by winning their last 2 games.
@ Filthy McNasty - Yankees? Red Sox? Where were they in post-season play? Again, over hyped but they didn't deliver. They sell lots of merch though...so at least they have that going for 'em. Go Royals!? <-- no hype. no game. cheap stadium beer!
Anyone else wanna pile on??! Come on...you know you want to!
Lead photographer for the STILL reining (until Nov. 16 at approx. 5:30 PST) WFTDA national champions!
www.phil-peterson.com
i guess my analogy wasn't
i guess my analogy wasn't clear enough. all your assumptions on who is going to win is based on the belief that the west is simply stronger than the east, thus you think no east teams even stand a chance. teams from the east that do well are "over hyped," even though if you look at what hambone wrote above, in the elite teams in the east vs the elite teams in the west in the past year, the east is up 7-1. boston and yankee fans believe that if their teams meet in the alcs, it's the "real world series, kind of like you believing rat city shouldn't play texas so early, even if that's the way it worked out due to their regional finish. you kind of sound like a yankee fan, with their blind belief the yankees are the best.
(i don't want any of this to come off as a diss to any of the women's teams in nationals, they're all amazing and like i said before, i'm excited to see such high level teams, including many i haven't been lucky enough to see before, bout each other.)
"over hyped." you keep using that phrase. i don't think it means what you think it means.
i do however think justice was right on point regarding your blatant regionalism. hopefully you can fit a "geography factor" along with the "excuses factor" when you develop your flat track derby rankings site.
ok, i'm done arguing on the internet about hypothetical situations now and hoping to reach a point of agreement. i'm going to go hit my head against a brick wall and hope it goes through, then poop and hope a golden egg comes out.
if you go to nationals, let's have a beer together and discuss derby photography.
filthy mcnasty
nyse
Juuuuuuuuuust wondering
So lets just have a hypothetical moment.
Suppose... one of Duke City's best blockers or jammers doesn't go to nationals (i don't have to explain why, this is a hypothetical scenario). Then when they play Gotham, Gotham wins by 150 points. Are you going to discredit the efforts by the rest of DCD and say they lost because their superstar couldn't play? And imply that if they had the superstar, they would've made up that 150 point defecit and won?
If Gotham annihilates every team at nationals and every east, west, n.c., and s.c. team they face until Nationals 2009, are you still going to say they're all hype? If they play texas 20 times and beat them every time, will you argue that texas was just tired/missing players/will always be better in the future? If they lose ONE of those games, will that be proof that GGRD are an infinitely inferior team? What exactly will make you believe that teams outside of the western region are possibly better than first year freshies?
Is every east coast win a fluke and every west coast loss caused by some temporary, excusable incident that will always, always be better or different next time?
I can understand making excuses for a marginal win (5pts or less). 61 points (GGRD v TXRG) isn't part of the statistical margin of error. Thats a straight up blow out. No amount of exhaustion has made me play so poorly in a game that the other team by default. There are no excuses for that.
Aside from what your "reliable", obviously-VERY-neutral, sources tell you, have YOU ever seen an East coast team play recently? Did you watch DiD footage?
Honestly, I think you drank some special kool-aid. I happen to think Gotham (well, all the nationals qualifying teams) is awesome, but I also know that its possible for ANY team to be overpowered or outsmarted regardless of how awesome their track record is.
If an east coast team beats a west coast team but no one's there to see it, does that mean they still lost?
Anna
Boston Massacre: The pantsless wonders of Massachusetts
close your eyes, click your heals
Or you close your eyes and click your heals 3 times, there's no place like home, there's no place like home, there's no place like home!
whew, it was all just a dream.
So lets just have a hypothetical moment.
Suppose... one of Duke City's best blockers or jammers doesn't go to nationals (i don't have to explain why, this is a hypothetical scenario). Then when they play Gotham, Gotham wins by 150 points. Are you going to discredit the efforts by the rest of DCD and say they lost because their superstar couldn't play? And imply that if they had the superstar, they would've made up that 150 point defecit and won?
If Gotham annihilates every team at nationals and every east, west, n.c., and s.c. team they face until Nationals 2009, are you still going to say they're all hype? If they play texas 20 times and beat them every time, will you argue that texas was just tired/missing players/will always be better in the future? If they lose ONE of those games, will that be proof that GGRD are an infinitely inferior team? What exactly will make you believe that teams outside of the western region are possibly better than first year freshies?
Is every east coast win a fluke and every west coast loss caused by some temporary, excusable incident that will always, always be better or different next time?
I can understand making excuses for a marginal win (5pts or less). 61 points (GGRD v TXRG) isn't part of the statistical margin of error. Thats a straight up blow out. No amount of exhaustion has made me play so poorly in a game that the other team by default. There are no excuses for that.
Aside from what your "reliable", obviously-VERY-neutral, sources tell you, have YOU ever seen an East coast team play recently? Did you watch DiD footage?
Honestly, I think you drank some special kool-aid. I happen to think Gotham (well, all the nationals qualifying teams) is awesome, but I also know that its possible for ANY team to be overpowered or outsmarted regardless of how awesome their track record is.
If an east coast team beats a west coast team but no one's there to see it, does that mean they still lost?
Anna
Boston Massacre: The pantsless wonders of Massachusetts
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
and just to avoid confusion
My post was in response to Phil, not Filthy McNasty. The edit button isn't there for me to add that note in.
Anna
Boston Massacre: The pantsless wonders of Massachusetts
dreams. it's all in your mind.
So lets just have a hypothetical moment.
Suppose... one of Duke City's best blockers or jammers doesn't go to nationals (i don't have to explain why, this is a hypothetical scenario). Then when they play Gotham, Gotham wins by 150 points. Are you going to discredit the efforts by the rest of DCD and say they lost because their superstar couldn't play? And imply that if they had the superstar, they would've made up that 150 point defecit and won?
If Gotham annihilates every team at nationals and every east, west, n.c., and s.c. team they face until Nationals 2009, are you still going to say they're all hype? If they play texas 20 times and beat them every time, will you argue that texas was just tired/missing players/will always be better in the future? If they lose ONE of those games, will that be proof that GGRD are an infinitely inferior team? What exactly will make you believe that teams outside of the western region are possibly better than first year freshies?
Is every east coast win a fluke and every west coast loss caused by some temporary, excusable incident that will always, always be better or different next time?
I can understand making excuses for a marginal win (5pts or less). 61 points (GGRD v TXRG) isn't part of the statistical margin of error. Thats a straight up blow out. No amount of exhaustion has made me play so poorly in a game that the other team by default. There are no excuses for that.
Aside from what your "reliable", obviously-VERY-neutral, sources tell you, have YOU ever seen an East coast team play recently? Did you watch DiD footage?
Honestly, I think you drank some special kool-aid. I happen to think Gotham (well, all the nationals qualifying teams) is awesome, but I also know that its possible for ANY team to be overpowered or outsmarted regardless of how awesome their track record is.
If an east coast team beats a west coast team but no one's there to see it, does that mean they still lost?
Anna
Boston Massacre: The pantsless wonders of Massachusetts
Suppose Duke City's best blocker went to TXRG this year, along with 2 other A level all-stars from 2 other leagues, does that make Texas a better team? No hypothetical there...the answer is clearly yes. The Texas team I saw play in Houston was the best Texas team I've seen in the 3 seasons I've been involved in derby. Rat City was a close second. I've seen some of the top Eastern all-star teams play and in my opinion, if they think they can match TXRG or RC this year, they're dreaming. Sometimes dreams do come true but in this case, it's highly unlikely.
FYI - My source for my most current Eastern info was at ER as well as Houston. They said that the level of play of the Eastern teams just didn't compare to the level of the Western teams for a whole bunch of reasons.
I hope for Gotham's sake that they step it up because it would be devestating to lose before winning the championship game after such high expectations...even more so if they lose in the first or second round.
As I've stated before, these are my own opinions and I make no apologies for them. You obviously have a differing view and in a coupla weeks we'll see who's more right. ;)
Lead photographer for the STILL reining (until Nov. 16 at approx. 5:30 PST) WFTDA national champions!
www.phil-peterson.com
internet arguments...special olympics...I just can't help myself
You missed my point entirely. Oh well.
Anna
Boston Massacre: The pantsless wonders of Massachusetts
Or, if you prefer...
There's John Gabriel's Theory about the Internet.
- bjmacke (still waiting for Godwin to rear his head)
this koolaid is delicious but i'm feeling strange...
Because this is a public discussion on a roller derby blog, differing opinions are almost mandatory. Besides, if everyone agreed with you or me, this discussion would be boring and no one would read it. ;D
Lead photographer for the STILL reining (until Nov. 16 at approx. 5:30 PST) WFTDA national champions!
www.phil-peterson.com
boring.
Actually, thid discussion is really boring. BOOOOOOOO-RRRRRING, I SAY!
nope
Phil says: "Suppose Duke City's best blocker went to TXRG this year, along with 2 other A level all-stars from 2 other leagues, does that make Texas a better team? No hypothetical there...the answer is clearly yes."
I would argue "no, not necessarily."
Derby isn't like baseball, where replacing a negative VORP outfielder with a positive VORP outfielder instantly translates to more runs scored and more victories, pythagorean or otherwise. (See: Ramirez, Manny)
Guess what derby teams practice during practice? Working together. Communication. Teamwork. Reading each others' minds. Lineup management. As an example, to go back to a baseball analogy - some pitchers work better with some catchers. In derby, some jammers work better with different styles of back-of-the-pack blocking help.
Some of the most unheralded players in the country are awesome at adapting to this stuff. Some of the most heralded players in the country suck at it. The TXRG players bumped down off the active roster by recent imports? Obviously I don't know, but they're probably great role players, probably great team players, probably very experienced players, probably very experienced within that system, and certainly bringing their own unique talents to the table.
Not to suck the fun out of that 'fantasy derby' line of thought. And I know TXRG's additions are wonderful team players. But I'm surprised to hear your comments from a KCRW fan, when it's teamwork which won the '07 title.
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental."
I mostly agree with your premise but did you see the Texacutioners play in Houston??
Baseball and the Pythagorean Theorem = booooring.
Derby = exciting unless the refs call way too many official timeouts *cough* a certain ref crew at Regionals *cough*
Lead photographer for the STILL reining (until Nov. 16 at approx. 5:30 PST) WFTDA national champions!
www.phil-peterson.com
Eating words and how Phil couldn't be wronger.
Just read over this old discussion and found it funny how wrong people were about last years Nationals. Especially it ending up being an all East final...
wow.
Welcome to last year... wow.
Yes my predictions for last year's Nationals were wrong so laugh all you want.
Good luck to all the teams playing in this year's Regionals and Nationals!
That splains why KCRW
improved so much over the past year up until the Austin tourney--training and coaching. I was watching other things as well believe it or not--the fast pack, the jammer rotation w/ Snot, Rita Ploy, Dee Claw, and a few others, plus the blocking of Patti Wackin and Bruz Her. A much more aggressive, fast and confident team overall.
Hey Gotham, use Phil's words for inspiration:)
flipped
the funny thing is, the way you're talking is the way most fans with "east coast bias" tend to talk in other sports and we know that it doesn't hold water (*cough cough, yankees, red sox) it's weird how the assumed bias is towards the west (in general) in roller derby.
i'm really looking forward to seeing some of the most competitive derby i've ever seen at nationals, and don't think the path to the finals will be a waltz for any of the teams. every one of the first round bouts is a "can't miss." I think if any team underestimates their opponent, they're going to be in for a big surprise.
Filthy McNasty
New York Shock Exchange
hi
i think gotham is really good, so i'm making it montreal hype as well!
georgia w tush
You were saying?
Yes, Gotham beat Texas. Will they do it in the big tourney? I seriously doubt it. In fact, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Gotham goes down in the first round...again. For several key reasons, Gotham's all-star team is not at the same level as last year according to good sources at Eastern. The top 4 teams in the West were consistantly tested in tournament play while Gotham wasn't. Contrary to what some have implied, I'm not dissing the Gotham girls, I'm sure they're nice and all but I haven't blindly bought into the Gotham hype either.
You were saying?
-Barely even speaking for myself...
*~[
Grand Poobah
Sin City Stat Pack
Fabulous Sin City Rollergirls
+1
You were saying?
- Grand Poobah
QFT
Amen, Anna!
Amen and double amen, Anna Wrecksya!!
Wins and losses with the people you choose to put on the track that day. Period.
Don't bring your B team to an A game. Don't bring a knife to a gunfight.
This here's big girl derby. Never, never take another team for granted.
Quad, As Usual, is Totally Full of Wrong
Because, you know, the Cincinnati Bengals would have won a game by now if they had fielded Carson Palmer.
...
...
...oh, who am I kidding? *snif*
(I don't have a real interest in this argument, but won't ever pass up an opportunity to bash the Bengals.)
Yes, but...
To what extant are ratings supposed to be an estimate of future performance rather than an aggregate of past performance? If a team lost a game and the best players weren't there is that as good an estimate of future performance as a game when they were? Here is where the amature nature of the sport becomes a factor. Travel costs money and takes time, so there's more variation in away team rosters than in professional or college sports. It IS more difficult to come up with ratings in a sport where the rosters are less fixed, the schedule is ad hoc and level of play is rapidly improving.
No different from other sports
In no sport are rankings considered an estimate for future performance. Rankings reward what has already happened. If you choose to extrapolate future outcomes based upon them, that's your decision.
"Here is where the amature nature of the sport becomes a factor."
Perhaps, but every sport faces the same kind of issue - it just arises more typically in the form of injuries. If you lose your star quarterback to injury in the first game of the season and don't expect him back until the first day of the playoffs, you don't get a free pass to the Super Bowl after a losing season just because you probably could've been better, or because you really kicked a lot of ass in the 5 minutes that he played.
If you begin taking other circumstances into account, there's no end to the argument that every team could have won every bout by hundreds of points if only this and that had been different. "Two of our skaters broke a mirror and another one walked under a ladder" should not be factored into rankings.
Only wins, losses, points and penalties are real. Anything else is opinion (as, for that matter, is the original post here).
and Dayglo cracks on ME......
Look, I have a healthly respect for Texas(I did predict a 6 point win for Gotham @ ECE). Things being equal, I'd say Gotham would win by 10 in a rematch.
The Original Troll
I would like to see
I would like to see the East get some credit. Gotham has a real shot, I am rooting for you ladies!!!
Raci Lords
River City Rollergirls
This year...
Gotham looks like the favorite to me. TXRG won't likely be "well-rested." They'll probably be coming off a tough bout against Rat City or Windy City. And they'd have to beat them, as well.
-Barely even speaking for myself...
*~[
Grand Poobah
Sin City Stat Pack
Fabulous Sin City Rollergirls
east vs west head-to-head
By my count, the current top 5 WFTDA ranked east teams have played the current top 5 WFTDA ranked west teams 8 times since Nationals 2007.
The victory tally?
East 7, West 1.
(Gotham 2-0, Windy 1-0, Carolina 2-0, Philly 2-0, Detroit 0-1)
(BAD 0-2, Rose City 0-2, KCRW 0-2, Texas 1-1, Rat City 0-0)
Change and recalculate that criteria any way you like -- teams going to nationals only, top 6 from each region, top 7 from each region, WFTDA rankings, FlatTrackStats rankings -- and it's clearly been a pretty lopsided year when it comes to east vs west.
Uh, so far.
And now for a new segment called "Seriously?!"
Seriously? You don't think the East has been getting anything but credit in the last week? Seriously?!
No offense, East Coast, but I am a little tired of hearing about how you guys are so fast and dominant and blahblahblah :)
Can't we all just come together as AMURRICA and be fast and dominant?
Not trying to start a fight. Just trying to lighten the competitive mood. Nationals will be intense enough as it is.
Can't we all just get along?
Can't we all just get along? :-)
But, also seriously, those of us who have been around for a while in the East have heard about how much weaker we are than the West for YEARS. So I think that's the wellspring for a lot of the commentary to the tune of "look out for the East" - because for so long the West (or at least a vocal portion of their fans) didn't think they had to.
So yeah, we can all be redonkulously awesome regardless of location (and what are you, biased against non-Amurrican leagues? Huh? HUH?!??!)... but I am still super proud of all my Eastern Region ladies!
Ana Bollocks
Gotham Girls Roller Derby
I am having Tupac vs Biggie flashbacks***
Hmm. I didn't even think about what a nightmare it's going to be when the non-American leagues really get into involved in rankings and competitions with the rest of us. Maybe it will start and American/Canadian war.
*** Tupac is better than B.I.G.
at least Biggie stopped after three postmortem albums
But as long as it doesn't end in drive-bys, I think we're all good :-)
Ana Bollocks
Gotham Girls Roller Derby
East Coast vs West Coast? How about...
....a certain team from "The Midwest Coast" being the last one standing at Nationals this year :o)
Kanye said it best: "...You can have one, but we'd have to charge...LaLa, La La La" ;o)
just gonna note
that I said Eastern REGION, not East Coast.
Ana Bollocks
Gotham Girls Roller Derby
I hear ya,
I was just makin a snarky comment ;o)
....It's just weird for me to think of ChiTown being in the eastern region. I guess next season that won't be an issue anymore :o)
Nice try..
....a certain team from "The Midwest Coast" being the last one standing at Nationals this year :o)
Kanye said it best: "...You can have one, but we'd have to charge...LaLa, La La La" ;o)
I think Rat City will have something to say about that.
The Original GGRDonald
Anybody got a line on
Anybody got a line on Nationals in Vegas?
Nationals in 2009
Well for 2009 they are set to be in Philly. I'm pretty sure 2010 is still up for grabs. This is the first I've heard Vegas mentioned....
Betting lines sir. It was a
Betting lines sir. It was a tongue in cheek comment but I'll be in Las Vegas next weekend and if I could throw down a wager on the eventual outcome I'd do it.
Confer with me at the Double Down...
...over a shot of Ass Juice. We can take your wager up with my good friend "Vinny Bagadonutz."
-Barely even speaking for myself...
*~[
Grand Poobah
Sin City Stat Pack
Fabulous Sin City Rollergirls
I've seen Gotham
a couple of times-Once the allstars and a bout between the Queens of Pain and the Gridlock. Suzy and Cheapskate jumped out to me as being among the best nationally. I believe Gotham can skate with the best nationally. My concern is can they lock down defensively against Rat City or TX at their best-I'll give TX a mulligan for the ECE if all the best assets weren't there and they were tired. They weren't able to lock down KCRW in the nationals last year, so we'll see if their defense will improve to take on the best from the west.
Texas and Gotham at ECDX
First, a bit of clarity about rosters and not having certain players there. I can't remember who it was, but one of the big names of Texas was ejected from the bout in the first jam. I'm not sure why it happened, but they played the bout without that skater. So saying that Texas had all their stars on the line skips over the ejection.
But it was never about who was or wasn't there for Texas. A friend at ECDX put it quite plainly: Had this match-up occurred at Nationals that Texas would have beaten Gotham. Gotham, as a team, evolved over the six months after Nationals and grew to be a team that could beat Texas.
Texas, in my opinion, has grown as a team since ECDX. They stepped up their game and won the Western Conference on their own merit. I think that Friday's bouts in Portland will set the tenor for the rest of the weekend. All four teams (Texas, Gotham, Carolina, and Duke City) are not the teams they were in 2007. Hell, the same is true of the other four teams. But Friday's bouts set the mood for whether it'll be a weekend of nailbiters, upsets, or snoozers.
- bjmacke (a.k.a. Apron)
ejection
I believe that was Catastrophe (sp?) over a thrown helmet?? Don't quote me on it.
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
Enough misinformation...
Cat was ejected for racking up her 4th major in the 10th jam of the 1st period, which coincided with her 5th trip to the penalty box. She was not expulsed, as this is not grounds for expulsion, and she was not penalized for throwing her helmet, which I suppose means that no helmet was thrown. She sat a total of 7 jams before returning for the 2nd period.
Texas had no other expulsions or ejections.
well
I can't edit my comment so sorry for the misinformation.
Holly Gohardly
Charm City Roller Girls
That's OK...
I wasn't supposed to quote you on it anyway.
I just wanted to point out that she was not expulsed after the 1st jam, and that she in fact did skate most of the bout. Not sure where any rumors to the contrary are coming from, but rumors become truths so quickly when they're posted here that sometimes intervention is necessary.
Solid.
All four teams (Texas, Gotham, Carolina, and Duke City) are not the teams they were in 2007. Hell, the same is true of the other four teams.
Solid on this.
Someone said a while back on DNN that the top 10-12 teams in 2008 are playing better than the top 4 teams in 2007... and, at least having watched the WCR All-Stars develop all year, I am sure of this.
So so so excited to spectate (and cheer! go WCR cheer squad!) the hell outta Nationals!
xo,
Loco Chanel