West Semifinals: 4W Oly Stops 1W Rose City, 188-121
-
Photo: LeVar Hurtin. -
Photo: Axle Adams. -
Photo: Axle Adams. -
Photo: Axle Adams. -
Photo: Axle Adams.
RICHMOND, CA -- 4th seeded Oly, playing significantly more cohesively than they had on Friday against 5 seed Rocky Mountain, led for almost the whole bout in the process of landing a seeding upset on top seed Rose City. Oly's 188-121 win marked the first time a top seed had lost before the final game of a regional tournament since 2008.
Although Oly's Atomatrix took lead on the first jam with significant help from Hockey Honey playing defense on White Flight, the jam eventually saw both jammers go to the box and the score sit at 5-5 after the full length battle. On the other side of the power jam for Oly, On Da Sligh racked up 19-0 and put Oly in front 24-5.
The crowd's preferences became loudly clear on the third jam, though, as Soulfearic Acid repeatedly ripped through a Oly pack while Frank N. Hurter, JK Rolling, Mercy and KickAssedy owned Oly jammer Lindsay Loblow. The 23-0 run for Acid put Rose in the lead 28-24 and blew up a restive audience.
But Rose City was held off the board for the next three jams, which included a 20-0 power jam for Atomatrix, and Oly was again up 52-28 with about 12 minutes gone in the bout. Power jams aside, though, the teams played very evenly for the majority of the half, with the score 54-31 with 13 minutes to play.
Scald Eagle, in her second game back from a broken fibula in June, had a statement jam while Mercy, Frank N Hurter and Scrappy Go Lucky bottled up Onda Sligh; her 14-0 got a big pop from the crowd and put the margin in single digits for the first time since the second jam at 54-45.
The margin remained even after the teams traded 5-0 jams, but a jammer penalty against Oly's Scara to Death let Scald Eagle narrow it a little more with a 5-0. That made it a one-pass game at Oly 59, Rose City 55 with 7:30 to play in the first half.
Still Oly refused to surrender the advantage. They took lead on the next three jams and went 5-0, 4-0 and 3-0 to lead 71-55 going into the last jam of the half. However, a crowd-pleasing combination of a jammer penalty on Atomatrix and a big 14-0 run for Scald Eagle -- even though the Rose City pack was whittled to just Mercy against three Oly blockers -- left it a two point game at the half, 71-69 Oly.
However, the break sucked out all of Rose City's momentum. The second half started with 10-0 and 15-0 jams to Oly that quieted the crowd as Oly held their largest lead of the game at 96-69. Oly carefully husbanded that lead for the early minutes of the half, leading 119-76 with about 16 minutes gone.
Rose was still very much in it at that point, but a 30-0 power jam for the irrepressible On Da Sligh made things significantly harder for the Portland crew, as they were looking at a 149-76 disadvantage with about a quarter of the bout to go.
Rose City didn't get a lead jammer call in the second half until Soulfearic Acid managed it a full 19 minutes and 9 jams in. That 4-0 made the score 162-80, and was followed up by a identical margin from Scald Eagle, but Rose City could not keep the rally going against Oly's tough defense.
The second half was mostly the story of Rose City's chances getting smaller and smaller; they didn't get their first big jam until there were under two minutes to play on a 20-0 to Scald Eagle. Rose City called timeout with 1:09 on the clock and the score 188-121, hooping for a few miracles in the closing moments, but it was not to be. The last jam ended 0-0 and featured a very messy, crowd-displeasing engagement between Oly blocker Lil' Tonka and Rose City jammer White Flight; that left the heavily Rose City-leaning audience lustily razzing the winning Oly team on their victory lap.
With the win, Oly is guaranteed to move on to Championships for the fourth year in a row. They'll play in the final game of the West playoffs against the winner of tonight's Denver / Bay Area semifinal; Rose City faces the loser of that same game with a trip to Championships on the line.
Comments
video already posted - internet speed
Here's Lil' Tonka (#3) hitting White Flight (#54) in the face with an elbow, then grabbing her behind her head and pulling her down. Gross Misconduct (6.16.11) and completely unnecessary at that point of the bout. It is true that White flight grabbed Lil' Tonka's arm after this and pulled her, to which I'd say Lil' Tonka got off easy. White Flight is not someone with whom you want to start a brawl.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mp-UnxbLXQ
You can also click on picture 5 of this article for the still.
Benefit of the doubt
I'm usually quick to give skaters the benefit of the doubt, but I don't think there's any valid argument for a non-penalty in this case. I think you're completely right in 6.16.11 ("Pulling of the head, neck, or helmet.") or possibly even 6.16.9 ("Intentional, negligent, or reckless contact above the shoulders."). There's no doubt it was at least negligent, and I can't say it wasn't intentional.
Was there any call on it?
I will buy a White Flight
I will buy a White Flight jersey if they ever make 'em!
Ha, there aren't going to be
Ha, there aren't going to be any brawls, but yeah - crazy, dangerous move by Tonka.
On Da Sligh
So, I'm fairly new to On Da Sligh. The first I heard of her was during Transfergate when a few people were saying that Atom/Joy/HH joining weren't going to be the big factor and that On Da was going to be the biggest add on. Then a friend of mine who has been a diehard Oly fan since before they were even WFTDA saw her play agaisnt Minnesota last month and texted me with "Atomatrix who?"
So, I was curious to see how various players stacked up during this bout. I chose this bout because it was the best level of competition for Oly to measure by yet, and because it would hopefully be less impacted by factors like "first time skaters are skating together" or "just got off the airplane 10 hours ago" or even "first botu of the tournament jitters".
So, how did various players do? Let's take the stats that Rinxter has posted. Atomatrix scored 85 points as a jammer, and had 40 points scored against her in 17 jams. On Da Sligh scored 94 points as a jammer, and had 24 points scored against her in 13 jams. Those stats look like a stronger performance by On Da than by Atom.
How much stronger? Here comes some math and stats. I assume most people are familiar with Point Differential, which is the difference between how many points you scored vs how many were scored against you. Atom has a +45 Point Diff while On Da has a +70 Point Diff. To compare further, though, we want to balance them out to Point Diff per Jam (PDPJ), which accounts for one skater skating more than the other. In this case, Atom has a PDPJ of +2.65 while ODS has +5.38. Already we can see ODS appears to have a stronger performance than Atom.
Now, if we want to go one level deeper, we can look at a stat called Value Against Absent Jams, or VAAJ (yes, I am aware of the acronym... it really is the most descriptive and still pronounceable acronym) based off of a similar concept in baseball called Value Over Replacement Player, or VORP. The short version is that you compare a player's performance to the performance of the entire team without that player. In this case, it looks answers the following question "If I jam skater X this jam, how much can I expect her to increase our Point Differential than if she just sits on the bench for this one jam?"; in this case it assumes another jammer that is equivalent to the average of the rest of the team's performance jams instead. A few nice things about the way this stat works: it can be used for blockers as well, it shows performance relative to the team, so even if you lose you can show who did better or if you win it can show who did worse, and (unlike VTAR) it eliminates the cross-effects of skaters who both jam and block within the same bout.
So, what was Atom's VAAJ? +1.73. On Da's VAAJ? +5.49
This means that if there had been another jam, and you were Oly's bench coach, your expectation is that putting Atom in to jam would increase your lead +1.73 points more than your average other Oly jammer, but putting On Da in would increase your lead +5.49 more points than your average other Oly jammer.
So, yes I am impressed with On Da Sligh, and I am looking forward to watching her more. She seems like a key addition to Oly that most everyone is not giving anywhere near enough credit to. And I suspect Oly is happy to keep it that way.
tl;dr - On Da Sligh did the heavy lifting last night.
Note
A note on the VAAJ stat: it can't tell the difference between a jammer that does well and a jammer who always has the same pack that does well. Or a jammer who does well but is always paired up against an opponent who does awesome. Unfortunately, no stat can until you get enough data without those special cases to counteract the imbalance.
Is there a name for the derby
Is there a name for the derby equivalent of sabermetrics? Vaajametrics?
Note Addendum
To add context to your comment, a quick count of Rinxter's lineup page shows Atomatrix had more jams with Soulfearic Acid (7 vs. 4 for On Da Sligh) and fewer with White Flight (2 vs. 4 for On Da). Both Oly jammers had the same number of jams with Scald Eagle, 5. Atomatrix also had 2 jams with Untamed Shrew and 1 with JK Rolling. I'm not sure you can always give credit to a jammer for how well her teamates hold back the opposing jammer.
Of perhaps greater importance, On Da had 3 power jams while Atomatrix had only 1 (if I'm interpreting to chart correctly). Additionally, On Da served one minute in the box and Atomatrix 2.
Tracking which jammers faced which group of blockers, and how many blockers they faced on the track, would take a lot more effort.
Atom and Sligh
Atom is far better at getting out from behind a rugged, physicality-minded wall than Sligh is. Sligh has better jukes, but as she herself will tell you, she HATES being hit. Against a team like Denver, Sligh will contribute of course, but Atomatrix is your go-to jammer in my opinion. That said, go Mile High Club!
Agreed
I wholeheartedly agree that just jammer numbers is not enough to tell the entire picture. Most of the points you bring up are in fact excellent considerations that lie outside the stats.
One of the reasons I use VAAJ is because it's a great way to see a skater's performance that is independent of the strength of their opponent. So, throughout a season, we can look and see if that VAAJ was an outlier, or if it followed the trends of how much that skater (jammer or blocker, remember VAAJ works for both, I was only discussing those two jammers) contributed to the team's performance.
"Additionally, On Da served one minute in the box and Atomatrix 2."
I do want to discuss, however, that jammer trips to the box is something that, to me, does not excuse a good or bad performance. If you score lots of points as a jammer but give up lots of points due to power jams, that's the same as a jammer that scores a few points but doesn't go to the box. The reason for your points shouldn't matter, but the fact that you were responsible for them should.
Oly's Blocking
Those guys really won the game IMO; Not to take anything away from their jammers but they did a terrific job of springing Oly jammers for an overwhelming lead jammer advantage, contained WOJ jammers well in the back end, (HH) particularly White Flight (8 pts?), harrassed in the middle (Babble) and stuffed at the top end (Sassy) with fine support from Tonka, Ecko and Chica. Win the trenches, win the game.
More agreement
I definitely agree. I did not mean to imply that either jammer was the reason for Oly's success, but to go into depth the contribution that each jammer makes relative to other jammers. Six of Oly's jams, however, were by jammers that never scored any points, so which jammer you choose does matter. You need the jammers that can best take advantage of the opportunities that the blockers are providing for.
Comparing VAAJs
So, I've been thinking about my penultimate paragraph, and realized that I did something a little dishonest. VAAJ is a great way to compare a skater's performance to her team's performance. This means that looking at Atomatrix's VAAJ already compares her to On Da Sligh's performance. So, now when I attempt to compare one VAAJ to the other, I'm comparing twice (well... less than twice, but more than once).
So, I've remade some calculations by hand to indicate a VAAJ for each that doesn't include the other's performance. So, if you're the coach and choosing between Atom, On Da, or Other, you would get a value as follows:
Atom: +7.01 better than Other
On Da: +9.75 better than Other
Of course, since neither skater blocked at all, this difference is the same difference as just their regular PDPJ differences (relative to each other). Had either of them blocked, then they wouldn't have agreed.
I apologize for the statistical dishonesty (Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics, right?). I should've just quit before I got to that paragraph.
tl;dr - Don't compare your VAAJ to your teammate's VAAJ
re: Comparing VAAJs
So, now when I attempt to compare one VAAJ to the other, I'm comparing twice (well... less than twice, but more than once).
So, I've remade some calculations by hand to indicate a VAAJ for each that doesn't include the other's performance.
Pictures, or it didn't happen.,
Define math
What you call PDPJ is available online on the stats for each bout (called Diff/jam)
Could you please describe what formulas you used to calculate Value Against Absent Jams?
VAAJ
Value Against Absent Jams is designed to look at how a team performs when a skater is jamming or blocking vs when she is not skating at all. Unlike similar stats that I have seen, VAAJ doesn't discriminate for when a skater is not jamming or not blocking. That's to say, if I am looking at her jammer VAAJ (each skater can have jammer VAAJ stats and blocker VAAJ stats), I compare to jams where she was neither jamming nor blocking. The reason being that if she's a mediocre jammer, but a great blocker, then her great blocking is going to help other jammers but won't help her, so it actually lowers her jamming VAAJ, making her look worse than she is as a jammer. Short version is I want to see how she performs compared to if she stays on the bench.
Also, I have Offensive VAAJ (which represents how good she was at helping her team produce points), Defensive VAAJ (which represents how good she was at keeping the opponent from scoring points) and Overal VAAJ, but I was just reporting Overall VAAJ above.
Offensive VAAJ = PointsForWithSkater/JamsWithSkater - PointsForWithoutSkater/JamsWithoutSkater
Defensive VAAJ = PointsAgainstWithSkater/JamsWithSkater - PointsAgainstWithoutSkater/JamsWithoutSkater
Overall VAAJ = PointDiffWithSkater/JamsWithSkater - PointDiffWithoutSkater/JamsWithoutSkater
Overall VAAJ is equivalent to Offensive VAAJ + Defensive VAAJ
I hope that makes sense?
Now with more data
So I looked at the total Vtot (overall VAAJ) and compared it to Diff/Jam for every bout that Oly played in last weekend.
Atomatrix Weekend V_overall = 1.8
OnDa Weekend V_overall = 2.5
Atomatrix Weekend Diff/Jam = 2.06
OnDa Weekend Diff/Jam = 2.91
Also of note, Atomatrix was in 45.4% of the Oly jams over the course of the whole weekend. OnDa was only in 29.2% (Joy was 54.6% and Hockey Honey was in 59.2%)
Versus Rose and Rocky, OnDa had "better" stats than Atomatrix but that was not the case with the Denver bout.
Derby All Star Bout
Has there ever been any talk of augmenting the nationals with an ALL STAR BOUT. Perhaps start the championship bout earlier, then 3 bouts with the best skaters from each of the four divisions going head to head (East v. West, North v. South), 2 winners play for the best all star team.
Math is cool
I wouldn't sell yourself short on the stats. Having some stats, however imperfect, fuels our discussion and love of the sport. Like most stats, I think the VAAJ becomes more meaningful as the sample size increases. It would be cool if we had Rinxter for every bout; if we had annual and career VAAJ's and other stats we could be comparing individual players.
By the way, I'm in complete agreement with your comment above about penalties, the jammer who serves a minute and scores 10 points gets just as much credit as the jammer who skates 2 minutes and get 10 points.
This makes by want to go through the bouts jam by jam to calculate the PSBOTWSOOT ratio for teams that play Oly (Points Scored By Opposing Team While Sassy's On/Off the Track).
Jam by Jam
You don't really need to go through jam by jam. It's in the Rinxter data. For this bout Sassy was in 16 jams as a blocker. In Jams containing Sassy, the opposing team scored 40 pts. (- pts. score). Since the team scored 121 pts. total then:
PSBOTWSOnT = 40
PSBOTWSOffT = 81
Venue Complaint
After the last two years of watching both the Western Regionals and the Nationals at arenas with comfy cushioned cloth seats with seat backs and arm rests, I felt this venue with nothing but metal bleachers to sit on was a MAJOR STEP BACKWARDS for Roller Derby and it's progress, as far as being a spectator sport goes. I was planning on staying for the whole 3 days, but after my back was killing me after watching two bouts on those horrible seats, I left early, flew home and now I've been watching the games on my comfy couch on WFTDA.TV. I already have tickets for the nationals, but I'm going to check the facility and if its metal bleachers instead of comfy cushioned cloth seats, I'll watch from home.
If Derby wants more paying fans, give them a venue where they can sit comfortably through 8 bouts. While I'm at it, I sure do miss the days when Roller Derby was about fast and agile skating skills and not about who can shove their way through a wall of standing still blockers. Boring. I live in Seattle and last year Rat City set attendance records, this year, attendance was way down, probably due to less skating and more shoving.
I'm watching the internet
I'm watching the internet stream (so obviously not there) but I have to say that visually this venue is stunning to watch. The camera work has been exceptional as well.
Production Values Up
Yes, the production values having definitely improved as far the live feed. So the "at home" experience is better, but not the "live" experience.
Really can't agree...
I think the live experience has been fantastic. I can say, hands down, this is one of the best venues I have ever seen a tournament held in. For an event of this nature, the size has helped the atmosphere hugely, as has the character of the venue.
Give me slightly uncomfortable seats and a venue with character and atmosphere over a soulless arena any day of the week, and twice on Sundays.
I Allege Improvement!
It's definitely an improvement over the camera work at North Centrals last weekend -- not necessarily the camerawork itself, but the knowledge of the appropriate times to switch between camera feeds, whatever that's called. Too many times last weekend viewers would be seeing on-track actions of minor relevance, whilst the announcers commented enthusiastically on something completely different. This week is better.
The venue issues
I'm a little concerned about ATL too--they're hosting in a convention center, so I don't know if they're going to shuttle some nice cushy seats into the venue or if we'll get some metal comfort. I can deal, but my friend may not feel so accommodating.
I'm sure most leagues do their best to get the best venues, but I'm sure they're dealing with issues of cost, willingness to rent to an "outlaw" sport, logistics, and availability.
That may or may not be a problem in the Seattle area, which hasn't hosted a regional or a championship tournament:(. However, they've got many options around here to do it-not just the Key Arena where Rat is, but you've got Comcast Arena (hosted BOTB) in the North Sound, and Showare Arena in the South Sound--all with nice cushy seats.
Seattle Hosting
I've wondered why Seattle with all those great venues hasn't hosted a Western or National event. Anyone know?
Obviously Oly and their rinky dink skating rink won't be doing it anytime soon.
I will let the Green Bay
I will let the Green Bay Packers know that Lambeau Field's metal bleacher seating has caused them to be removed from the list of American Spectator Sports. Thanks for the heads up.
3 versus 12
A football game lasts 3 hours, the tournament goes for 12 hours. That's a lot of time to spend sitting without back support.
Do you really sit that long, though?
I get up and move around, check out different seats, sometimes the floor and sometimes standing. Plus, watching all seventeen bouts is crazy! At NC, the wife and I even skipped a bout and walked to Canada for lunch!
Handy Chair Thingies!
You can buy handy chair-thingies that hook onto the bottoms of bleacher seats, and provide the sitter with a cushion and a backrest. Of course, you probably need to know that you're heading to a venue with bleacher seating for owning such a device to do you much good.
Venues are easier said then done
The Craneway Pavilion, where Besterns was located, is a general purpose event facility -- not a sporting venue. As a result, many of the "creature comforts" of traditional sporting events simply aren't available.
The next step up from Craneway, would be the Oracle Arena. Unfortunately, the gap of fans from ~1500 to ~5000 is significant. It takes a lot more then advertising, "cushioned chairs" to attract and retain that number.
In the mean time, we'll just have to console our fans with sunset bouts, sweeping views of the bay bridge, treasure island, SF skyline, alcatraz, and golden gate bridge. Amazing weather. Federal parks and bike/skate paths. Local organic foods-- vegan or carnivore friendly. Viking-supported skate stores. And some of the best derby you'll see anywhere.
~rzr
Lil Tonka
Lil Tonka has been in the skating world since day one... derby since she was old enough to play and she now is the Woman's Goalie for washington Warriors Roller hockey team... I don't think she was going out of her way to do something on the low down. I personally think it just happened that way and we should let it lie where it did.. I am an OLY FAN from the heart and there alot of those women that have there whole heart in this game. Lil Tonka being one of many. the one thing I want to point out is she is wearing number 3. Do you know who also worn number 3 on that team when she played?
SaSSY... one of the WORLDS best..... Everyone can say OLY is playing dirty and all that ,but its just because our teams are the best in the world. From hockey to derby and we have nothing more to prove...
The rules
One of the things the WFTDA rules work very hard to do is remove all opportunities to judge intent. Just like a low block can occur even when the skater isn't trying to do so and it will still get called, so is true with most Gross Misconduct calls. The wording of 6.16.11 ("Pulling of the head, neck, or helmet.") has nothing to do with intent, and should be applied in this case. Same with the negligent and/or reckless portion of 6.16.9 ("Intentional, negligent, or reckless contact above the shoulders.").
I've seen skaters receive Gross Misconducts and get expelled just because they were leading with their knee during a block. There was no intent to injure, but they were skating in a way that increases the likelihood of injury. Even when you assume that what she did was unintentional, she was being EXTREMELY unsafe, and she strictly violated the rules of the sport and should be appropriately held accountable for it. As should anyone else that does the same thing.
"but its just because our teams are the best in the world. From hockey to derby and we have nothing more to prove..."
Still have to (get to and) beat Gotham. They undeniably hold that title until November 4th.
There is a lot more to prove
There is a lot more to prove until the last whistles are blown at Champs, like whether pick-up teams are the way to go (a good number of them aren't actually associated with Olympia outside of the uniform).
The current WFTDA Champions are still Gotham who don't fly in skaters.
no need for strawmen
I'm not aware of anyone saying that all of Oly is playing dirty. The issue here is that Lil' Tonka committed a Gross Misconduct and was not penalized for it. Grabbing another skater's neck is no joke, it can result in serious injury. That's why Deranged was ejected and suspended for her punch to the back of the head/neck in 2009. Intent is not an issue in the call but it's clear from the picture what her intent was, and it's disgusting. But now she'll have to live with everyone knowing exactly what she is capable of when it comes to putting another skater's health and safety at risk. Was it really worth it?
Psycho Babble's impact?
I agree that Pyscho Babble is an awesome player, but does she add much to the Oly lineup? Psycho and Echo seemed relatively quiet in the Rose bout when compared to other Oly blockers. Then again, they probably don't have to try as hard knowing that the rest of the lineup will back them up if they miss a block. What do the numbers say?
Psycho
I agree that Pyscho Babble is an awesome player, but does she add much to the Oly lineup?
Yes.
Well
Her Blocking VAAJ was -2.19 over 15 jams and her jamming VAAJ was -0.72 over 5 jams. So, she didn't have a good performance last night.
Hard to see how they could add much more
in terms of geographical diversity.
Someone at Oly seems to
Someone at Oly seems to thinks so. Psycho skated in 13% of all the Oly jams for the weekend as jammer and 40% as a blocker.
For the weekend, the top blockers from Oly were:
1st. Chica
2nd. Joy
3rd. Scara
4th. Hockey/Psycho (tied)
5th. Ecko
6th. Tonka
7th. Sassy